As all our regulars know, we are always the first to dissuade overzealous Kentucky Derby-watchers from their immediate certainties that another Triple Crown is at hand. In the wake of California Chrome’s bombastic win in Louisville, however, we may have finally arrived at a horse who will have the talent and the racing luck to do it. Las Vegas now has Chrome 2-1 to pull it off, down from 7-1 prior to the Derby. The Preakness Stakes in Baltimore in two weeks—a race which is 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby—is regarded as a mere stepping-stone to the Grand Finale, the mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes in New York City three weeks later. The wind is strong and the positive adjectives are flowing. So is there anything that can stop this cannonball express from achieving his glorious quest—being the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the TC? Sure. Things like these:
1. Endurance Over Time. After the race, Chrome’s trainer, Art Sherman, said this: “He’s fine. He left just a handful of grain in his tub last night, but that’s all. He got a little tired, but not too bad. Victor (jockey Espinoza) told me yesterday that he did get a bit tired on him at the end; that he eased him a bit that last seventy yards.” Positive post-race trainer talk we’re all familiar with, but with perhaps a subtle clue to give bettors pause, especially at 2-1. “He got a little tired.” Okay, how tired is a little? Are we gilding the lily here or is the degree of tiredness commensurate with what we would expect of a horse running his first mile-and-a-quarter race? Don’t forget: the time of this Derby—2:03:66—was the slowest over a track labeled “fast” since 1974. We would give tiredness a big pish-tosh if the Preakness and Belmont were not being run within five weeks of the Derby, but they are. Remember: most stakes horses have a month or more between races, even the older runners. The Triple Crown has an accelerated schedule. Our guess is that California Crown will not be compromised for the Preakness. The Belmont, three weeks later, may be another matter.
2. Untapable. The most impressive 3-year-old at Churchill Downs last weekend was nobody in the Kentucky Derby. On Friday, the filly Untapable blitzed the field in the Kentucky Oaks, and did it in a sparkling time of 1:48.68 (for 1 1/8 miles), second-fastest Oaks ever.
Couple years ago (okay, it was 2009), a little girl named Rachel Alexandra wiped out her competition in the Oaks and came back to win the Preakness two weeks later. The prevailing sentiment is that Untapable’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, is unlikely to pull the trigger. “She’s a delicate filly,” he told reporters, “we don’t want to take too much out of her.” Nonetheless, stranger things have happened.
3. Wicked Strong. The understatement of the year might be that Wicked Strong had a bad day in Louisville. No, a bad day would be one where your car was hijacked, your payroll check was stolen and your mother-in-law was flying in later that night. That would be nothing compared to what happened to Wicked Strong. First, he stumbled out of the starting gate, then drifted in to bump Candy Boy in the first turn. He came in again, creating close quarters with Dance With Fate and General a Rod leaving the six furlong marker, altered in to avoid Danza in mid-stretch and continued on weaving through traffic to the finish. Despite all this, he finished fourth, beaten less than five lengths. Remember—a length is the time equivalent of ONE second. If he’s still in one piece and not totally exhausted, he has to be considered a threat to California Chrome in either of the next two classics. Look for him in the Belmont.
Untapable Rules The Oaks
Preakness Possibilities
Prior to the running of New York’s esteemed Wood Memorial (won by Wicked Strong), Social Inclusion was considered a definite threat to win the Kentucky Derby. He won his first two starts smashingly, but his third-place finish in the Wood left him short of qualifying for Louisville. At his best, he definitely bears watching.
Bayern, trained by Bob Baffert, is another interesting possibility. Always considered a top Derby contender, he threw in a clunker in the Arkansas Derby and didn’t earn the trip. Has a lot of talent. Recent visits to an equine psychiatrist might help.
Pablo Del Monte was in the Kentucky Derby for a few seconds. When Hoppertunity scratched, he was automatically next up according to the amount he had accumulated in purses. His owners decided the 20 gate was a bad neighborhood and they didn’t want their valuable commodity walking through it. There won’t be 20 gates in the Preakness.
Ride On Curlin, seventh in the Derby, is headed to Baltimore. Other possibilities include Kid Cruz, winner of his last two stakes races in Maryland; Strong Mandate, a D. Wayne Lukas horse, and Dynamic Impact, winner of the Illinois Derby.
Second-place finisher Commanding Curve is a 50-50 possibility. He was far back the whole trip and made a long unobstructed run on the outside to get second in the Derby, but was never a threat. People got excited about his late run but we’ve seen this before; subsequent races often do not follow the same plot. Better chance in the Belmont.
Trainer Graham Motion’s Ring Weekend qualified for the Derby but came up with a fever and didn’t ship. Now he can just amble over there from his training headquarters in Elkton.
Hoppertunity, with a bruise to his left front foot, was scratched from the Derby and trainer Baffert says he will not travel to Baltimore, either. Third-place Churchill Downs finisher Danza is on the fence.
California Chrome’s colorful owners have not yielded to an onslaught of offers for their horse in the wake of his big Derby performance. “Ten million is too cheap,” they allege. Wouldn’t it be fun to tell someone that? Anyway, they are no doubt correct. If the horse wins the Preakness and teeters on the edge of the first Triple Crown in 36 years, the sky’s undoubtedly the limit.
I Told You We Should Have Taken The Limo!
A dozen friends heading to the Kentucky Derby for a bachelor party got a little surprise on their way to the Run For The Roses. The group started out from Minneapolis-St. Paul two days before the race, stopping in Winona to pick up a few more partygoers. While opening up an exterior compartment in the RV they had rented, they discovered a dead body.
Jake Wanek of Minneapolis told the Minneapolis Star Tribune the first hint of trouble came when someone opened one side of the compartment and discovered “a foul odor.” When they opened the other side, they found the body. “It didn’t look fresh,” reported Jake. “Let’s put it that way.”
Reports are incomplete on the further progress of the partiers as police asked to borrow their vehicle.
The Mint Julep And Beyond
If you are going to the Derby, of course, you will be having a Mint Julep. Everyone does—it’s a tradition. Your Mint Julep sounds better than it tastes. Made from muddled mint leaves, sugar and bourbon—often very dilute bourbon—and served in a delicate silver cup, the julep has become a prominent Derby Day icon, even if it tastes like crap. Don’t complain, though. Kentuckians are touchy about their bourbon. 97% of the stuff consumed in the United States is distilled in Kentucky.
You may also want to sample a “Hot Brown.” This concoction was invented in 1926 at Louisville’s Brown Hotel. A Hot Brown is actually an open-faced sandwich of turkey and bacon, topped with cheddar-infused bechamel sauce. Depending where it is made, this delicacy can run anywhere from terrible to tasty. Either way, it gets rid of the taste of the Mint Julep.
If you don’t especially trust anything called a Hot Brown, maybe you would like some burgoo. This is a stew which contains….well, anything. Just use whatever you’ve got on hand. There was a time when burgoo derived its main ingredients from squirrel, opossum, raccoon and venison. We’re kinda glad those times are gone. Today’s burgoomakers generally use pork, chicken and mutton. Thankfully.
And Down The Stretch They Come!
If you have never visited the Kentucky Derby, you may not be aware of what takes place in the infamous Churchill Downs infield—the inner area surrounded by the racetrack rail. In fact, if you have visited the Kentucky Derby you may not even be aware of it. Let’s just say, rock concerts don’t hold a candle to the dubious behavior of the mostly younger crowd, which does not need drugs to get high and very, very raucous—alcohol will do just fine. And, of course, if you have a lot of alcohol, you will probably be needing a lot of….well….toilets, right? Extremely durable toilets, at that. Drunken revelers have been known to um, misuse these port-a-potties on occasion. In keeping with the racing spirit of the Kentucky Derby, some of these people will climb to the top of these privies, which are lined wall-to-wall, and race on top of them. Particular problems are generated by challengers trying to pass a runner in front of them. Occasionally, contestants take a tumble. So far, no racer has needed to be put down, but there are many reports of broken bones, severe contusions and teeth out, often causing the postponement of a contestant’s future races. The SPCI (Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Imbeciles) is asking Churchill Downs management to install a more cushiony infield surface. A response to the request has been slow.
Now For the Important News
Cosmic Flash is entered in the sixth race Friday at Gulfstream, a five-furlong turf dash. He breaks from the eight hole against 10 much more experienced opponents. There are a couple of horses with early speed, though we doubt as much as his. A quick break from the gate is critical in a short sprint like this. So is some affinity for the grass, with which the horse is not familiar. Ideally, we would be running in a dirt race with the same conditions but things often fail to break ideally. Anyway, you gotta start somewhere so this is it. For all of you readers out there who sometimes fall victim to the vulgar practice of gambling, morning line odds on Cosmic Flash are a lofty 8-1. Exotic bets should include the favorite, Moonwalker, at 3-1. In the unlikely event the race moves from the turf to dirt, substitute Statutorial for Moonwalker.
In related news, our mare Dot (Cosmic Light, to you) foaled a big, bright filly last Friday who happens to be a full sister to Cosmic Flash. Hopefully, she’ll be as talented and less hobbled by annoying injuries. If not, we can always enter her in the equine Miss America contest. Her talent will be “Jumping On People.”
Dot’s Daughter, Ava, At Six Days
That’s all, folks….
