My Old Kentucky Home
The sun shines bright on my old Kentucky home,
Tis summer, the darkies are gay.
The corn top’s ripe and the meadow’s in bloom,
While the birds make music all the day.
The young folks roll on the little cabin floor,
All merry, all happy and bright.
By ‘n’ by, hard times come a-knocking at the door,
Then my old Kentucky home, good night.
Weep no more, my lady.
Oh, weep no more, today.
We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home,
For the old Kentucky home far away.
The Elephant In The Gate
In the most recent Golden Era of golf, when Tiger Woods was transcendent, gamblers were often asked if they would take “Tiger or the field,” meaning Woods or everybody else. When Tiger was at his best, this question required ample consideration, even when the opposition numbered over 150. Because the field was talented and because on any given day one of them might rise up to play the game of his life, the wise bettor would almost always take the field. Still, Tiger won a lot so a wise man might take careful regard for the site of the tournament, Woods’ record there, his recent play on similar courses and even the weather expected for the event.
The 140th Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3rd, bears a striking resemblance to the old “Tiger vs. the field” golf tourneys. There is the West Coast invader California Chrome. And there is everybody else. Is California Chrome the fastest horse? Absolutely. Would you take California Chrome vs. the field. Maybe not. Thing is, when you go to the windows you have to bet on somebody. The odds discrepancy in this race will be unusually vast. California Chrome will go off at 2-1 or better. Wicked Strong or some last-minute fan favorite will be 6-1 or 7-1. It has been our experience that there is nobody who deserves odds of 2-1 in the Kentucky Derby. Why not? Well, here’s why not:
The Derby: Graveyard Of Favorites
Whereas horses favored to win succeed overall in thoroughbred racing around thirty-five percent of the time, since 1979 only six favorites have won the Kentucky Derby, under 18%. Here are some of the reasons winners are so mindnumbing to choose:
The Horses Are Lightly Raced. Gamblers do best when provided with a wealth of information, therefore are at a disadvantage when faced with a field of horses which have made few starts. Some are getting better each time out, some have already peaked at two-years-old.
The Race Has A Greater Number Of Competitors. And not just in numbers, also in ability to challenge. In horse racing, most trainers try to find the easiest place to run their charges, the exceptions being those trying to accumulate credits for the Breeders Cup races or some other prominent stakes. Gamblers are usually faced with deciding between three or four possibilities. But everyone wants to win the Kentucky Derby, the most prestigious race in this country if not the world, so every good three-year-old is aimed towards that race. And all entrants must have sufficient earnings to qualify to enter.
The Competitors Come From Everywhere. Race meets run from five or six weeks at some tracks to year-round at others. Once a meet begins, just about all but the stakes horses remain at the home track for the duration of the meet. Gamblers have the advantage of watching horses perform on a familiar surface over a period of time. Few horses have to ship in from any further than across town. In the Derby, however, they are arriving from everywhere, some from out of the country. Churchill Downs, home of the Derby, opens shortly before the event. Unless a horse has raced there as a two-year-old, he has no experience on that track.
The Distance And Weather Factors. The distance of the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles. None of these horses have run any further than 1 1/8 miles. If that doesn’t seem like much, try it some time. Go out to your neighborhood track and run a quarter of a mile. It’s one whole lap. Some horses will do it like breaking sticks, appreciating the extra distance. Others will crash and burn. Pedigrees enter the picture here.
Many of the contenders will not have experienced racing in the rain….on a sloppy or muddy track. It will be irrelevant to some, not so much for others. The problem is in knowing which is which.
There are other factors, but these are principal. Legitimate gamblers would rather pass on races like the Kentucky Derby and look for easier pickin’s. If they can’t figure it out, what chances do the rest of us have?
Reasons Not To
In the list above, we have provided issues to consider when betting the race. If you’re looking for reasons California Chrome may not win, consider these:
1. He’s Not Racing On His Home Track. Neither is anyone else, you might say. True enough, and this applies to them, too. The question becomes which horses can best transfer their abilities from one track to another. Some horses are better on dirt, some on grass and some on synthetic tracks, like Viscoride, Polytrack or Tapeta. Churchill Downs is a dirt track, as are most. California Chrome has been racing at Santa Anita, also a dirt track, but with one big difference from most. Santa Anita has an extremely fast surface, horses just fly over the thing. Churchill Downs will be made as fast as possible for Derby day but it will not be as fast as Santa Anita under any circumstances. This may not bother Chrome one bit. It might bother him a lot. Who knows?
2. He’s Leaving On A Jet Plane…. So far, the Derby favorite has just had to walk out of his stall and go racing. Now, he has to hail a taxi to the airport, travel a couple thousand miles and experience a whole new set of circumstances and surroundings. What will he think of that? Some horses could care less. You could send Cosmic Flash to Burma in the baggage compartment and all he would ask would be “When do we eat?” Not the same for everybody. The water is different in California. Maybe they’ll bring it with them.
3. It’s A Little Crowded Out There. None of these horses has ever been (nor will they be again) in a 20-horse field. It’s a mess. If a horse is parked in one of the outside gates, he’s got to move across the track without killing somebody or being killed himself before the first turn; otherwise, he may run unforgivably wide, losing all chance. On the other hand, horses inside may be locked in uncomfortable positions for extended periods, unable to make a move or keep up with the horses in front. California Chrome has good tactical speed. If he gets out of the gate in good order, he should race with the first flight of horses and remain in good position to accelerate when the time is right. If he does not, well….
4. It’s The Kentucky Derby. Things have been relatively easy for California Chrome. It’s not that he didn’t have any competition, he beat good horses on the Coast. Just not a lot of them at the same time. In Kentucky, some horse—maybe more than one—will run the race of his life. To win, Chrome will have to do likewise. And then there’s the weather.
Wicked Strong Guarded By Mean Hombre
Who Else Can Win?
In our opinion, not a lot of them. There are nineteen other horses in the race which have done the things necessary to be there. We would like to own any of them. That said, more than half have no chance. Distance limitations will kill off several, lack of Classics-level talent will bump the rest. Even among the contenders, of course, bad racing luck will take no prisoners. All things considered, who is left to challenge for the roses? Maybe these guys:
1. Wicked Strong. I know, I know, he’s in the outside gate (No. 20),* but if any horse in the race can pull it off from there, it’s him. Also, it lengthens his odds, if you’re so disposed. Perhaps a legitimate 5-1 horse, Wicked Strong is listed at 8-1 by the Churchill Downs oddsmaker and could go off higher than that. On the other hand, maybe not. Named for Boston and running with a lot of Marathon sympathizers, he will draw plenty of support. He can definitely get the distance, which cannot be said of everyone in here. Trained by Jimmy Jerkins, son of Hall of Fame trainer Allen, his connections are experienced and know what they’re doing.
2. Hoppertunity. Probably the second-best West Coast horse. Trained by Bob Baffert with old pro Mike Smith up. Ran well at Santa Anita, still well-beaten by California Chrome. Goes off at 6-1, but would be third pick if Wicked Strong had a better gate.
3. Samraat. Winner of five out of six races, second to Wicked Strong in the Wood. Good post (No, 6). Very tough customer. Odds of 15-1 partly reflect some handicappers opinion this horse does not want the Derby distance. We think they’re wrong.
4. Candy Boy. Another good California horse previously beaten by the favorite. Too close to the pace in Santa Anita Derby, will come from further behind Saturday. Could get a piece at 20-1.
5. Intense Holiday. Works like Seattle Slew but so far hasn’t run like him. 12-1 odds partly due to respect for his trainer, Todd Pletcher, whose best chance of winning this race (Florida Derby winner Constitution) is on the sidelines with a hairline shin fracture.
6. Wildcat Red. Florida horse will shoot for the lead from his 10 post. Rider Luis Saez, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Red (and beat him while riding Constitution) is back up and Saez is an excellent front-running jockey. Brave battler, but distance may catch up with him in the stretch.
7. Tapiture. Could be a big weekend for his sire, Tapit. His daughter, Untapable is odds-on in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. Tapiture looked like a nice horse heading into the Arkansas Derby, but never fired in that race. Could have been all that hillbilly Bible music. Might rebound.
8. Danza. Looks the part. Surprise winner of the Arkansas Derby, not the toughest test in the world. 10-1 odds may be a little optimistic.
9. Vicar’s In Trouble. Easy winner of the Louisiana Derby but has problems in here. Will try for lead from his rail post and may get it, but at what cost? Helped by Wildcat Red being in outside post. Rosie Napravnik up and odds of 30-1 make him interesting.
Epilogue. If any of the other eleven entrants win this race, we’ll be….well….gobsmacked. Too many holes in their racing records, their pedigrees or both. That leads us to our:
Peerless Prognostications:
First: California Chrome. We don’t usually root for California horses, but you’ve gotta like Chrome’s owners, Steve Coburn and Perry Martin, no horse aristocrats they. Coburn works for a company that makes magnetic strips for credit cards and hotel keys. Martin and his wife own a modest materials testing company. They are nowhere close to rich but they recently turned down a six million dollar offer for controlling interest in their horse. “The buyers wouldn’t race him in our colors,” Coburn complained. “They’d move him, they’d change trainers. We can’t do this to Art (Sherman, Chrome’s 77-year-old trainer). He spent a lot of time with this horse. They’re a team.”
Coburn and Martin bought California Chrome’s dam for a mere $8000. Even then, their friends derided the purchase and their entry into “the horse business.” “They called us dumbasses,” said Coburn, so we decided to call our outfit the Dumbass Stable. We even have a donkey on our colors.” Very nice, Steve and Perry. So who’s the dumbass now?
Second: Wicked Strong. He looks like the real deal, impressed in a Wood Memorial with good competition and can handle the mile-and-a-quarter. He also has another thing working for him; the souls of the dearly departed might be up there mixing a celestial brew. Wait a minute! It might be working already! Hoppertunity just scratched and Wicked Strong moved up to Gate No. 19.*
Third: Samraat. Every race a good one, including the Wood, where he had to battle his way between opponents to garner second. Always right there. Likes to run.
Fourth: Wildcat Red. Because we like him, he’s fast and it’s our column.
Happy wagering. If you get lucky, don’t forget our 20%.
That’s all, folks….
The sun shines bright on my old Kentucky home,
Tis summer, the darkies are gay.
The corn top’s ripe and the meadow’s in bloom,
While the birds make music all the day.
The young folks roll on the little cabin floor,
All merry, all happy and bright.
By ‘n’ by, hard times come a-knocking at the door,
Then my old Kentucky home, good night.
Weep no more, my lady.
Oh, weep no more, today.
We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home,
For the old Kentucky home far away.
The Elephant In The Gate
In the most recent Golden Era of golf, when Tiger Woods was transcendent, gamblers were often asked if they would take “Tiger or the field,” meaning Woods or everybody else. When Tiger was at his best, this question required ample consideration, even when the opposition numbered over 150. Because the field was talented and because on any given day one of them might rise up to play the game of his life, the wise bettor would almost always take the field. Still, Tiger won a lot so a wise man might take careful regard for the site of the tournament, Woods’ record there, his recent play on similar courses and even the weather expected for the event.
The 140th Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3rd, bears a striking resemblance to the old “Tiger vs. the field” golf tourneys. There is the West Coast invader California Chrome. And there is everybody else. Is California Chrome the fastest horse? Absolutely. Would you take California Chrome vs. the field. Maybe not. Thing is, when you go to the windows you have to bet on somebody. The odds discrepancy in this race will be unusually vast. California Chrome will go off at 2-1 or better. Wicked Strong or some last-minute fan favorite will be 6-1 or 7-1. It has been our experience that there is nobody who deserves odds of 2-1 in the Kentucky Derby. Why not? Well, here’s why not:
The Derby: Graveyard Of Favorites
Whereas horses favored to win succeed overall in thoroughbred racing around thirty-five percent of the time, since 1979 only six favorites have won the Kentucky Derby, under 18%. Here are some of the reasons winners are so mindnumbing to choose:
The Horses Are Lightly Raced. Gamblers do best when provided with a wealth of information, therefore are at a disadvantage when faced with a field of horses which have made few starts. Some are getting better each time out, some have already peaked at two-years-old.
The Race Has A Greater Number Of Competitors. And not just in numbers, also in ability to challenge. In horse racing, most trainers try to find the easiest place to run their charges, the exceptions being those trying to accumulate credits for the Breeders Cup races or some other prominent stakes. Gamblers are usually faced with deciding between three or four possibilities. But everyone wants to win the Kentucky Derby, the most prestigious race in this country if not the world, so every good three-year-old is aimed towards that race. And all entrants must have sufficient earnings to qualify to enter.
The Competitors Come From Everywhere. Race meets run from five or six weeks at some tracks to year-round at others. Once a meet begins, just about all but the stakes horses remain at the home track for the duration of the meet. Gamblers have the advantage of watching horses perform on a familiar surface over a period of time. Few horses have to ship in from any further than across town. In the Derby, however, they are arriving from everywhere, some from out of the country. Churchill Downs, home of the Derby, opens shortly before the event. Unless a horse has raced there as a two-year-old, he has no experience on that track.
The Distance And Weather Factors. The distance of the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles. None of these horses have run any further than 1 1/8 miles. If that doesn’t seem like much, try it some time. Go out to your neighborhood track and run a quarter of a mile. It’s one whole lap. Some horses will do it like breaking sticks, appreciating the extra distance. Others will crash and burn. Pedigrees enter the picture here.
Many of the contenders will not have experienced racing in the rain….on a sloppy or muddy track. It will be irrelevant to some, not so much for others. The problem is in knowing which is which.
There are other factors, but these are principal. Legitimate gamblers would rather pass on races like the Kentucky Derby and look for easier pickin’s. If they can’t figure it out, what chances do the rest of us have?
Reasons Not To
In the list above, we have provided issues to consider when betting the race. If you’re looking for reasons California Chrome may not win, consider these:
1. He’s Not Racing On His Home Track. Neither is anyone else, you might say. True enough, and this applies to them, too. The question becomes which horses can best transfer their abilities from one track to another. Some horses are better on dirt, some on grass and some on synthetic tracks, like Viscoride, Polytrack or Tapeta. Churchill Downs is a dirt track, as are most. California Chrome has been racing at Santa Anita, also a dirt track, but with one big difference from most. Santa Anita has an extremely fast surface, horses just fly over the thing. Churchill Downs will be made as fast as possible for Derby day but it will not be as fast as Santa Anita under any circumstances. This may not bother Chrome one bit. It might bother him a lot. Who knows?
2. He’s Leaving On A Jet Plane…. So far, the Derby favorite has just had to walk out of his stall and go racing. Now, he has to hail a taxi to the airport, travel a couple thousand miles and experience a whole new set of circumstances and surroundings. What will he think of that? Some horses could care less. You could send Cosmic Flash to Burma in the baggage compartment and all he would ask would be “When do we eat?” Not the same for everybody. The water is different in California. Maybe they’ll bring it with them.
3. It’s A Little Crowded Out There. None of these horses has ever been (nor will they be again) in a 20-horse field. It’s a mess. If a horse is parked in one of the outside gates, he’s got to move across the track without killing somebody or being killed himself before the first turn; otherwise, he may run unforgivably wide, losing all chance. On the other hand, horses inside may be locked in uncomfortable positions for extended periods, unable to make a move or keep up with the horses in front. California Chrome has good tactical speed. If he gets out of the gate in good order, he should race with the first flight of horses and remain in good position to accelerate when the time is right. If he does not, well….
4. It’s The Kentucky Derby. Things have been relatively easy for California Chrome. It’s not that he didn’t have any competition, he beat good horses on the Coast. Just not a lot of them at the same time. In Kentucky, some horse—maybe more than one—will run the race of his life. To win, Chrome will have to do likewise. And then there’s the weather.
Wicked Strong Guarded By Mean Hombre
Who Else Can Win?
In our opinion, not a lot of them. There are nineteen other horses in the race which have done the things necessary to be there. We would like to own any of them. That said, more than half have no chance. Distance limitations will kill off several, lack of Classics-level talent will bump the rest. Even among the contenders, of course, bad racing luck will take no prisoners. All things considered, who is left to challenge for the roses? Maybe these guys:
1. Wicked Strong. I know, I know, he’s in the outside gate (No. 20),* but if any horse in the race can pull it off from there, it’s him. Also, it lengthens his odds, if you’re so disposed. Perhaps a legitimate 5-1 horse, Wicked Strong is listed at 8-1 by the Churchill Downs oddsmaker and could go off higher than that. On the other hand, maybe not. Named for Boston and running with a lot of Marathon sympathizers, he will draw plenty of support. He can definitely get the distance, which cannot be said of everyone in here. Trained by Jimmy Jerkins, son of Hall of Fame trainer Allen, his connections are experienced and know what they’re doing.
2. Hoppertunity. Probably the second-best West Coast horse. Trained by Bob Baffert with old pro Mike Smith up. Ran well at Santa Anita, still well-beaten by California Chrome. Goes off at 6-1, but would be third pick if Wicked Strong had a better gate.
3. Samraat. Winner of five out of six races, second to Wicked Strong in the Wood. Good post (No, 6). Very tough customer. Odds of 15-1 partly reflect some handicappers opinion this horse does not want the Derby distance. We think they’re wrong.
4. Candy Boy. Another good California horse previously beaten by the favorite. Too close to the pace in Santa Anita Derby, will come from further behind Saturday. Could get a piece at 20-1.
5. Intense Holiday. Works like Seattle Slew but so far hasn’t run like him. 12-1 odds partly due to respect for his trainer, Todd Pletcher, whose best chance of winning this race (Florida Derby winner Constitution) is on the sidelines with a hairline shin fracture.
6. Wildcat Red. Florida horse will shoot for the lead from his 10 post. Rider Luis Saez, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Red (and beat him while riding Constitution) is back up and Saez is an excellent front-running jockey. Brave battler, but distance may catch up with him in the stretch.
7. Tapiture. Could be a big weekend for his sire, Tapit. His daughter, Untapable is odds-on in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. Tapiture looked like a nice horse heading into the Arkansas Derby, but never fired in that race. Could have been all that hillbilly Bible music. Might rebound.
8. Danza. Looks the part. Surprise winner of the Arkansas Derby, not the toughest test in the world. 10-1 odds may be a little optimistic.
9. Vicar’s In Trouble. Easy winner of the Louisiana Derby but has problems in here. Will try for lead from his rail post and may get it, but at what cost? Helped by Wildcat Red being in outside post. Rosie Napravnik up and odds of 30-1 make him interesting.
Epilogue. If any of the other eleven entrants win this race, we’ll be….well….gobsmacked. Too many holes in their racing records, their pedigrees or both. That leads us to our:
Peerless Prognostications:
First: California Chrome. We don’t usually root for California horses, but you’ve gotta like Chrome’s owners, Steve Coburn and Perry Martin, no horse aristocrats they. Coburn works for a company that makes magnetic strips for credit cards and hotel keys. Martin and his wife own a modest materials testing company. They are nowhere close to rich but they recently turned down a six million dollar offer for controlling interest in their horse. “The buyers wouldn’t race him in our colors,” Coburn complained. “They’d move him, they’d change trainers. We can’t do this to Art (Sherman, Chrome’s 77-year-old trainer). He spent a lot of time with this horse. They’re a team.”
Coburn and Martin bought California Chrome’s dam for a mere $8000. Even then, their friends derided the purchase and their entry into “the horse business.” “They called us dumbasses,” said Coburn, so we decided to call our outfit the Dumbass Stable. We even have a donkey on our colors.” Very nice, Steve and Perry. So who’s the dumbass now?
Second: Wicked Strong. He looks like the real deal, impressed in a Wood Memorial with good competition and can handle the mile-and-a-quarter. He also has another thing working for him; the souls of the dearly departed might be up there mixing a celestial brew. Wait a minute! It might be working already! Hoppertunity just scratched and Wicked Strong moved up to Gate No. 19.*
Third: Samraat. Every race a good one, including the Wood, where he had to battle his way between opponents to garner second. Always right there. Likes to run.
Fourth: Wildcat Red. Because we like him, he’s fast and it’s our column.
Happy wagering. If you get lucky, don’t forget our 20%.
That’s all, folks….
