Perhaps, in time, California Chrome will meet the Immovable Object—the uncompromising one-and-one-half miles of the Belmont Stakes. This week, however, he will meet a suspect field in the mile-and-three-sixteenths of the Preakness, for which a mere two of his Kentucky Derby rivals will return to try again. Those of us who are up to our necks in horse racing are seldom shocked when a big favorite bites the dust. We’ve seen it happen too often. But we are often surprised, and most of us would be extremely so if the Preakness favorite failed to carry the day this weekend. He has already won at a greater distance, the mile-and-a-quarter of the Derby. He has beaten (apparently) better horses. He bounced out of the Louisville race without problems and seems eager to soldier on. Horse racing, nonetheless, is a minefield of hidden threats, any of which can be triggered by circumstances to explode and ruin the day. So what can happen to take the gild off the lily? Well….
1. Gate Problems. California Chrome has a history of gate issues, although he was perfect at the Derby. A bad break can compromise any race, particularly one with stakes-level competition. Given the distance of the Preakness, however, an exceptional horse should have time to overcome early problems.
2. The Two-Weeks Between Races. It’s difficult to determine how a horse will handle such a brief rest until you bring him back this quickly. Only two other Kentucky Derby horses will run Saturday and not just because of the opposition. Trainers with top-level horses are reluctant to wear out their charges by overracing them, a choice the connections of the Derby winner really don’t have. Several of these horses will be back in three weeks for the Belmont, well-rested and ready to put California Chrome to the ultimate test. It will be helpful to him if he can win the Preakness without being fully extended.
3. An Off Track. Nobody really knows how any horse will handle a racetrack compromised by weather until the horse tries it. And even if California Chrome has faced a wet track out west, it will not have been the same surface he could see in Maryland. Some tracks, like Calder, get faster when it rains, most don’t. And some horses run better in the slop. If Chrome is compromised to any degree by an off track and some opponent is helped by it, an upset is possible.
4. An Improving Rival. Granted, the field is less than overwhelming. But many of these horses have not run enough times to get a proper measure of their abilities. Horses mature differently and peak at different times. Trainers will try to have their charges primed for big races like the Kentucky Derby but sometimes nature doesn’t cooperate. It’s altogether possible that someone will peak on Preakness Saturday.
The Other Guys
There will be ten horses in the Preakness field at Baltimore Saturday. Some of them apparently are showing up just for the hell of it, they have no chance. So who is worth taking a look at? Maybe these guys:
1. Social Inclusion. Blitzed the fields in his first two races, looked like the second coming of Seattle Slew, before faltering in the Wood Memorial at Belmont and finishing a “disappointing” third. I don’t know about you, but if any of my horses ever finishes third in the Wood it’s not going to be too “disappointing.” The show finish, however, prevented the horse from accumulating the earnings total necessary to qualify for the Derby, thus he was a non-participant. Trained by 85-year-old Miamian Manny Azpurua, Social Inclusion breezed a half-mile in a brisk 47 seconds on Monday. Some concerns about inexperience and distance limitations but might be close with a perfect trip.
2. Bayern. Generally, we would tell you to never count Bob Baffert out of these things. After all, he’s won the Preakness five times and he’s got the redoubtable Rosie Napravnik, a local Maryland girl, up and eager to be the first female winner of the race. Baffert is taking the blinkers off Bayern, the better to track his opponents. His five-eighths work of 1:02 3/5 was only ninth fastest of seventeen at the distance but that may bother me more than it does Baffert. Might not want this distance.
3. Ride On Curlin. Seventh in Kentucky after a dubious trip in the Derby, this horse is one of the few to return two weeks later. Broke from Post 18 at Churchill Downs and had one horse beaten at the first pole. Still 14th entering the stretch, Ride On Curlin got a little room and zipped the rest of the way, finishing seventh, only one length behind the fourth horse, Wicked Strong . Must do better early and should with the smaller field and a smarter ride. Crackerjack jockey Joel Rosario replaces Calvin Borel in the irons
4. Dynamic Impact. On the improve, won the Illinois Derby against a weak field. By Tiznow and trained by the clever and underrated Mark Casse, horse is no California Chrome but may pick up a check.
Social Inclusion
Peerless Prognostications
We started off this selection business with a good Derby, picking three of the first five, including the winner. We’ll gladly take a repeat of that one. In here, just about everybody is realistic enough to know they are running for second money barring the sky falling in on California Chrome. Not that there is anything wrong with that. And speaking of the sky falling in, it did just that in 2006, collapsing on the star-struck Barbaro, winner of the Kentucky Derby in his previous start. Stuff happens and you can’t win if you’re not in. All things considered, this is how we see it:
First: California Chrome. Everybody’s leery of the low 97 Beyer Figure* he put up in the Derby, but only four horses improved or bettered their figure in that race, mostly due to the abnormally slow pace. Also, remember Chrome was eased in the stretch. This horse has put up big numbers in most of his other races and looks to be the real deal. His ability to win on the front end or from off the pace makes him difficult to hamstring. Currently 2-5 in the betting and with good reason. Can’t see him losing to these.
Second: Social Inclusion. Make no mistake, this is a very good horse and he’ll keep getting better. Off a mere three starts, probably not ready to beat California Chrome yet but watch out by Travers time (August).
Third: Ride On Curlin. Borel took him out of the race in the Derby but he finished great. Jockey Rosario is one of the best in the game and will do a much better job of keeping him close.
Last: Ria Antonia. I think the Original Plan must have been to win the Kentucky Oaks and then the Preakness, ala Rachel Alexandra. Well, gentlemen, I know Rachel Alexandra. Rachel Alexandra was a friend of mine. And Ria, you are no Rachel Alexandra. Only a careless prima donna—like, for instance, the owner of this horse—would finish sixth in the Oaks and come back to try California Chrome in the Preakness. There oughta be a law.
*A Beyer Speed Figure is a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andy Beyer, syndicated racing columnist for The Washington Post. In 1992, The Daily Racing Form began incorporating Beyer’s figures in a horse’s past performances and the system now assigns a Beyer number for every race horse. Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. On the Beyer scale, the top stakes horses in the United States and Canada generally earn numbers in the 100s. Another aide to punters is The Sheets, designed by Len Ragozin, with figures based on measurements of speed, weight, allowance for unusual track conditons, the placement of the horse during the race, prevailing wind, track construction peculiarities and a partridge in a prune tree. Both Beyer and Ragozin rate this year’s crop of three-year-olds as slow.
Pearls Before Swine
From Matthew 7:6 “Give not that which is holy unto dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you.”
Well, it was something like that. Several weeks ago, when Cosmic Flash was getting ready to run, trainer Larry Pilotti and I discussed at length who should ride him. After a lot of back and forth, we settled on Panamanian rider Jilver Chamafi, one of the better alternatives remaining after the great rider exodus from Gufstream Park, which occurs every year when the nation’s leading trainers move their charges back up north. Subsequently, Chamafi worked the horse three times, handled him well and seemed crazy about riding him in his first race back, which was to be May 18. Trainer Pilotti got a little antsy, however, and entered the horse a week earlier, looking to avoid working the horse again and thinking the later race might not go for want of sufficient entries. Trouble is, Chamafi had already accepted a mount on the morning-line favorite in the earlier race. No problem, said Larry, we’ll go with Manoel Cruz, a reliable old-timer we’d used in the past. Oops. After accepting the mount, Cruz’s agent jumped off when he came up with several opportunities across town at Calder. For the first time in history, both tracks are running the same dates. Taking off a mount you have accepted isn’t exactly cricket but neither are jockey agents especially known for their extreme honesty and reliability, which is why Dante assigned them to the Ninth Circle of Hell in his popular racing guide, The Inferno.
We tried to get Breeder’s Cup winner Juan Leyva and a couple of other guys, but no dice. Jockey agents get a little suspicious when they see others taking off a horse which has been off a year. What’s wrong with the critter, anyhow? We ended up with Jose Alvarez, no Willie Shoemaker but better than a kick in the head. Or so we thought. But there is a reason jockeys are called “pinheads.” Despite the clearest of instructions, they often choose to resort to their own proclivities, which can be ruinous. Cosmic Flash is a fairly high-strung fellow. Told by Pilotti to “warm him up good,” Alvarez thought sitting on him and walking around might be better. When they broke, Cosmic Flash hit the side of the gate, emerged at an angle and promptly bumped another horse. That was all Jose needed. Thinking he had a wild horse beneath him, he checked drastically and never let the horse run til he reached the stretch. The race turned into the equivalent of a 59-and-change workout, Cosmic Flash finishing in front of a mere two horses. If the cloud has a silver lining, it is only that the slow time makes him available for the originally planned race on the 18th. Let’s hope that one goes.
Meanwhile, we did get to see our old pal, Irana, although it was a battle getting her there. Irana called an hour before the race and told me she was in the saddling area, which was odd because I was also in the saddling area and I didn’t see her anywhere. “What are you wearing?” I asked her. “All black,” she answered. I looked around. There was one person all in black who could have been sent over by the Ford Modeling Agency but unless Irana had been drastically transformed by the world’s greatest plastic surgeon, this was not her. Not without trepidation, I asked her “What track are you at, the race is at Gulfstream?” I almost heard a thud on the phone as Irana’s heart fell. “Aw shit, I’m at Calder,” she moaned. “I can never get there in time.” Sure you can, I told her, and provided quick directions. Forty minutes later, I could see her from the grandstand as she greeted Siobhan at the rail by the finish line. “Call me an ambulance,” she pleaded, only partly in jest. Irana is the queen of body part replacements and some of them are wearing thin or out, so you’ve got to give the girl credit.
Also along for the ride, was a first-timer, Austin Li, Pathogenes employee extraordinaire. Austin, trying to live up to his Asian heritage, said he was going to bet his whole paycheck on the race. We told him he was staying home in that case. We finally agreed to let him bet $100. He apparently went to the Spanish window because the teller had a very difficult time understanding what we wanted. He eventually sold us a win ticket on the six horse in the race. Cosmic Flash was number eight. Now, there is an old racetrack tradition which commands that an incorrect ticket never be returned, that it will often be a winner. In this case, the six horse was 12-1 and we’re talking about $100 here, so we dispensed with the old tradition forthwith and traded the ticket for the correct number. I don’t need to tell you what happened. The six horse upset the applecart and paid $1320 for a $100 bet. Totally undiscouraged, Austin is working late into the evenings, positive he can come up with a surefire betting formula. Like so many before him, he is doomed to fail, of course, but you can’t tell these young computer whizzes anything. Who knows—maybe he’ll become the new Andy Beyer or Len Ragozin. We’ll let you know when his sheets are ready.
Here Comes The Bride
Just in case you think it’s just a bunch of old fogeys who read The Flying Pie, we’d like to demur. Ashleigh Ellison and Florian Schaub have been reading it from the outset. In her sophomore year at the University of Tennessee, Ashleigh somehow convinced her parents to let her study for a semester or so in Australia, whereupon she met Flo, a German fellow from the economically named town of Ulm. They were immediately smitten. When Ashleigh graduated from school, she moved to Berlin, got a nice job with Nokia and waited a few years for Flo to finish school in the German hinterlands. When he did, just recently, they moved to Pittsburgh, where Flo is a postdoctoral fellow at Carnegie Mellon. They arrived just in time to enjoy the steel town’s worst winter in years but love conquers all.
Ashleigh and Flo were married on Derby Day, May 3rd, the best thing that happened in Chattanooga that day. Siobhan and I were supposed to go (we REALLY wanted to, Ashleigh) but we were kept home by an ailing foal and a mare on the verge of delivering. We are either bad relatives or conscientious horse-care facilitators, take your pick. We’re sticking with the latter.
At any rate, the wedding went off without a hitch, evidence below, and the happy couple is back in Pittsburgh, shoveling snow. Since we’re betting on things this week, we’re going to buck the odds and predict an upset in the Ellison-Schaub marriage. We’re betting the marriage takes and continues unabated. We’re even letting Austin Li bet his whole paycheck on it.
Ashleigh, Flo, And The Chattanooga Choo Choo
