“We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home, for the old Kentucky home far away.”----Stephen Foster
The Kentucky Derby has a way of sneaking up on you, like morning fog and dental hygiene appointments. You weren’t even thinking about it yesterday and now, suddenly, it’s here. Office pools erupt all over the country and Derby parties replete with extravagant millinery wear proliferate. Clever Flying Pie readers besiege our world-famous racing prognosticators for a leg up on their friends and dull-witted officemates. For the thoroughbred industry, it’s Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Halloween all rolled into one as the great American public wakes to the fact that horse racing still exists, still can put on a show, still has great stories to tell. Of course, everyone wants to have the winner, gift-wrapped if you please, with as little work to do as possible, sadly forgetting the lessons taught by the immortal Little Red Hen. For the few, the proud, the would-be students of the game, however, we’d like to show you how to figure it out for yourselves. School is open, kiddies, please sharpen your pencils.
How To Bet On the Kentucky Derby
1. Make Your Selections As Late As Possible. And definitely never before Tuesday, the day of the draw for post positions. There are 20 entries in the Kentucky Derby and not one of them wants to be in gate number one or gate number 20. The further outside a horse is at the start, the more steps he has to run and the harder it is to get a good position for the first turn. Going wide in the turn cedes even more distance to the better-positioned horses inside. In a 1 1/4-mile race, nobody is looking to run any further than necessary, particularly considering the fact than none of these horses has gone this distance before. That said, the outside horses have less traffic to contend with and contenders from the second gate (post positions 15-20) have won this race before.
If it seems that the rail position would be an asset considering the distance to be traveled and the length of the race, think about this: if the thoroughbred in the 1-hole is a speed horse (we’ll discuss this category later), he is practically forced to abandon any strategy other than to bolt from the gate and avoid being swallowed up by the pack, not a one of which wants to be very wide entering the first turn. Post position can be---but not always is---an important factor.
Injuries to horse and rider can crop up between Tuesday and race day. If a rider has to be replaced and we assume the best 20 are already committed to someone in the race, the substitute jockey can decrease his mount’s chances, especially if he has not ridden the horse before. There is no guarantee this will happen, of course, there being numerous incidences of replacement riders performing admirably….but it is one more consideration.
Whereas a horse with a minor injury might skip another race, there is tremendous pressure to run in the Kentucky Derby. This is, after all, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to many horse owners and a few trainers, and if an injury is not deemed to be one which will compromise the horse’s chances or threaten his career, he will probably be allowed to run. Whether you want to bet on him under the circumstances is another matter. One more thing: if a horse drops out early enough, another one may jump in. Due to the qualifications for selection, a better horse may be waiting in the wings than several of the group in the top 20.
Finally, we have the question of weather. The later you wait, the more you know. And the weather can be a critical arbiter of the race result, there being few horses who run the same on a wet track as a dry one. A little rain can actually speed up some racing surfaces, but a lot of it can create a bog. There are a reasonable number of horses who move up (improve) on an off track and even a few who enjoy muddy conditions. A regular punter will always check the past performances to see if any of the entries travel well in the wet going. The Daily Racing Form, where it is available, contains all this information. To a lesser degree, so do the track programs. One issue for a race like the Derby is that many of these young horses, especially the candidates from California, may never have experienced a wet track at any time in their brief careers. And it rains in Louisville a lot.
2. Separate The Wheat From The Chaff. Entries to the Kentucky Derby are determined by the amount of purses won in specific races, which often allows inferior horses into the race at the expense of colts whose careers start late due to immaturity, injury or the predilections of owners and trainers not to hurry their charges. Just because an entry won a big purse on an off track against suspect competition in Abu Dhabi or New Mexico does not mean he is ready for prime time. Never handicap the Derby by the amount of money the runners have won. There are inevitably some tough-luck colts in the entries who have been banging heads with rough customers in challenging races and finishing well but not piling up the greenbacks. Look at the quality of races in the past performances and check for improvement race by race. See if a horse has a good excuse for an off day.
If you are a relatively keen observer, once you have familiarized yourself with the horses you will see that approximately half the Derby field has no chance of winning the race. If you are not a keen observer, your refuge lies in the odds. If a horse remains at 30-1 or greater within two days of the race, he has almost no chance of winning. That doesn’t mean a longshot can’t sneak up and get on the board (finish fourth or better), because one of them seems to do it every year. They just don’t win, and that’s what your office pool or party is all about, right?
3. Look For The Stamina. There are basically two types of horses, sprinters and routers. The former prefer races of seven furlongs or shorter, the latter want to go at least a mile and preferably longer. There is only one horse who has ever won both the Breeders Cup Sprint and the BC Classic, the incomparable Precisionist. There are, of course, horsemen who think any thoroughbred can be trained to go a distance of ground. I am not one of them. I think genes carry the day, which is why you keep seeing horses with Giant’s Causeway, Unbridled Song and Distorted Humor in their pedigrees running in the Derby year after year. Realizing the once-a-year handicapper has no knowledge of pedigrees, we suggest poring over the past performances to examine how a colt does as the distances increase. Did he run away from horses at six furlongs, win by a nose at a mile and get beaten two lengths by similar horses at 1 1/8? Did he run over a mile more than once and improve in subsequent races? Is he getting better or worse the further he runs? Sometimes a sprinter can get loose on the lead or slow down the pace and prevail, but this is not the eighth race at Prairie Meadows. It’s not happening in Louisville.
(When we discussed speed horses in Recommendation #1, we were not addressing sprinters but rather colts who preferred to be up close to the pace or on the lead.)
4. Eliminate The Furriners. Every year, some optimistic sheik who has seen his star prevail in the United Arab Emirates Derby decides it would be a good idea to send the critter to Louisville. This has never been a great plan. Likewise, horses from Ireland, England or France occasionally show up to run on the dirt for the first time. Good luck. This year, it seems like we have our first Japanese entry, which means the handle from Japan should be gigantic, if not the performance of its candidate. Horses from other countries who make their first American start in the Kentucky Derby never win. The ask is too great. It’s altogether possible that a European grass horse will run just as well on the dirt---maybe even the first time out---but the travel factor alone is daunting. Stick with the home team, that’s a difficult enough challenge.
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| MAXIMUM SECURITY |
5. Consider The Connections. If you see an undefeated horse in the race owned by WinStar Farm, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith, put a big star next to his name. All of these connections have proved their mettle in The Big Race. Off his success in recent years, Baffert deserves particular attention. He’s got it figured out and if he has the best horse, he’ll win. Considering the magnitude of the race and all the special conditions indigenous to the Kentucky Derby, classics-winning trainers are your best option, all else being equal.
There is one thing more important than the owner, the trainer, the rider or anything else, however, and that is the horse. If Seattle Slew is owned by the Bumfuzzle Farm, trained by Pee Wee Herman and ridden by Marjorie Morningstar, he will win anyway. Last time I looked, there were no Seattle Slews in this race.
Now that you’ve been properly instructed, you’re on your own. We’re certain that some one of you out there will make an exemplary choice, be rewarded at the windows and require a wheelbarrow to haul your winnings home. In which case, the least we expect is a yummy pastry carefully shipped overnight to the address below. Good luck and God bless you, your horse and the United States of America.
The Pretenders
Despite having picked six of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners, The Flying Pie hasn’t been paying as much attention since we departed the racing business, but we still know a bum when we see one. Okay, unfair to call any decent racehorse a bum, let’s just say a noncontender. One of the following may pop up and grab a check but none of them will win the race:
Master Fencer….the Japanese token contender, in Louisville on a lark. The tote board may not have enough room for these odds.
Gray Magician….second in the UAE Derby against one thoroughbred and a pack of mules.
Country House….drops back early, never a good tactic with 19 others in the race. Trained by ace conditioner Bill Mott, who must be taking optimism pills.
Win Win Win….owned by Ocala’s Live Oak Plantation. Later Later Later, when the going gets shorter.
Tax….second in the Wood Memorial, unable to hold off the closer, Tacitus. This race is longer. Nuff said.
Spinoff….trained by Todd Pletcher, good first effort off a layoff but not ready to beat this kind. His best could earn a check.
Plus Que Parfait….UAE Derby winner, but you know how we feel about foreign Derby preps. Didn’t beat much.
Long Range Toddy….Fast colt trained by proven classics guy Steve Asmussen. Unhappy with off going in Arkansas Derby, finishing 6th after a good race in the Rebel. This ain’t the Rebel.
Cutting Humor….Todd Pletcher trainee, won the Sunland Park Derby by a neck. “By a neck” tells the story, as does “Sunland Park Derby.”
The Homeboy
War of Will….Trained by Ocala good guy Mark Casse and ridden by Bill Killeen’s old pal, Tyler Gaffalione. Had a rough time in the Louisiana Derby but could be a nice horse down the road. Drew the one hole and might actually get the early lead. We created a special category just for him because we didn’t have the heart to tell Tyler he was on the list above.
The Second Tier
Code of Honor….a disappointing third in the Florida Derby, run at a snail’s pace. Needs the leaders to stop, which isn’t likely.
Vekoma….won the Blue Grass on speed favoring track at Keeneland. Javier Castellano rides, which always helps. A win would be a big surprise but a good performance would not.
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The Contenders
By My Standards….Won the Louisiana Derby, working well at Churchill. Should be a good price for longshot-lovers. Consider for exotic bets.
Tacitus….Not intimidated in early Wood Memorial scrum, an encouraging factor when considering the Kentucky logjam. Owned by Juddmonte Farms, trained by Mott, ridden by Jose Ortiz. Has a shot.
Maximum Security….Everybody’s whining about the slow fractions in the Florida Derby but this horse won for fun and is undefeated. Ridden by Luis Saez, who loves the front end.
Improbable….Okay, who’s the louse who named this guy? Owned by WinStar Farm, trained by Baffert, ridden by Irad Ortiz. Second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby, but not by much. Big shot with the favorite scratched.
Roadster….Any horse who wins the Santa Anita Derby gets your attention, and this one is trained by Baffert. Two straight wins since throat surgery, must consider.
Game Winner….Second to Roadster in SA Derby, always wide, likes to lug in down the stretch. Consistently gives up ground to rivals, something the great rider Joel Rosario will have to deal with if he wants a piece here. A frustrated Bob Baffert trains. Sometimes, a horse just won’t listen.
Omaha Beach….He’s got the name, the rider (Mike Smith) and a win at the Arkansas Derby. Richie Mandela trains. Has proven himself on all surfaces and continues to improve. Versatile, can go to the front or hang off the pace. Tough to beat and our pick to win before he was scratched at press time with an alleged trapped epiglottis, the triangular-shaped flap of cartilage that lies at the base of the airway. This type of problem is almost always found at the beginning of a horse’s career before he ever races. Omaha Beach will be replaced in the race by Bodexpress, still a maiden.
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| ROADSTER |
The Envelope, Please….
This is great. We’re all set with Omaha Beach to win and now he’s out of the picture. It’s like the Red Sea opening up for Bob Baffert who has both Improbable and Roadster. Ironically, the latter’s regular rider was Mike Smith, who went with the favorite and now is mountless barring last-minute skullduggery. That’s horseracing.
1. Improbable. Irascible in the gate at Arkansas when forced to wait in the one hole for horses slow to load. Broke well, sat in mid-pack to the far turn where he took on Omaha Beach, running outside the leader. Finished strong, beaten one length, much the best of the others. Has all the connections and talent needed to win, breaks from PP5. Twenty-four hours earlier, a victory looked improbable, so maybe the name works after all.
2. Roadster. Bob Baffert usually runs his top horses in the Santa Anita Derby and his perceived second-best in Arkansas. Roadster, well back in L.A. against a small field, came screaming back in the stretch to nip Game Winner at the wire. The Good News: The Kentucky Derby is a tad longer, which should help Roadster. The Bad News: Baffert’s colt will never get past 19 horses if he falls back to the rear. We think he won’t. Starts from PP16, which could help in his case.
3. Maximum Security. None of the big shot experts like this guy, but I do. All he does is win, four-for-four now, including the Florida Derby in a waltz. Backers will get nice odds. Horses seldom win the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire but this one is capable. Besides, what are the astronomical odds Baffert could go three-for-three?
4. Game Winner. Caught by Roadster at the wire last out but always tough. Baffert and Rosario give him an edge, but sometimes this horse is his own worst enemy. Good enough to win if we haven’t seen his best yet.
Addenda
Court Lewis, a Flying Pie devotee in Unicoi, Tennessee is concerned that we’re not discussing the various types of betting. That’s because 20% of our readers know all about it and the rest just want to know who the likely board horses (top four) are so they can look smart to their friends at the Derby Party. If there are a few of you who fall through the cracks and would like to know more about Perfectas and Exactas, just let us know and we’ll give you Court’s cell phone number. He’s a gentleman farmer with plenty of time on his hands and he’ll be glad to go into the tiny details. There may be a slight charge.
Good luck to one and all. If you win, remember who gave you guidance. If you lose, we never heard of you.
Down the track they come!
bill.killeen094@gmail.com
