“We will sing one song for my old Kentucky home.…for the old Kentucky home, far away.----Stephen Foster
The Road To the Kentucky Derby is sort of a novel, a book with 20 main characters, each with his own story to tell. As in many a novel, the principals are at first scattered hither and yon, even off in foreign lands, some with great expectations, some with few, making their ways through the thicket of life to eventually wind up all in the same place at the same time. In our book, the characters, rich and poor, started out with different goals. Talent and good fortune guided their steps, steered them past life’s pitfalls and into the Temple of Anything’s Possible. These are the Favored Ones, the 20 coddled by Fate. A few of them are to the manor born, others the sons of mere janitors, but they have all reached the final chapter with a chance for Glory. The novel, of course, is a mystery, the ultimate secret unrevealed until the final page. There are those of us who read along avidly, trying to gauge the author’s mind, looking for clues, mad to be the first to solve the riddle. Some of us will, some of us won’t, but, as usual, the merit is in the trying. Good luck!
The Questionmark
Every story needs an outlier, an underdog who overcomes gargantuan challenges to ascend to prominence. When they say it cannot be done, when they cry nobody can do it, the audience seeks a champion. In the Kentucky Derby, that could be Mendelssohn, a European invader looking to be the first of his kind to annex The Run For The Roses. Almost every annum, a challenger appears from across the sea to vie for The Prize, and every year he goes back empty-handed. This year could be different. Mendelssohn was not exactly picked up off the orphanage steps, being fathered by prominent classics sire Scat Daddy and a half-brother to champion Beholder, owned in part by Mrs. John Magnier and Michael Tabor and trained by the eminent Aidan O’Brien.
After four starts in Ireland and England, Mendelssohn dropped in to Del Mar last year to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf by just under a length over Untamed Domain. After a brief vacation, he came back at Dundalk to win the Patton Stakes on a synthetic surface, then captured the rich United Arab Emirates Derby in an 18 3/4-length laugher. Mendelssohn was so far ahead in that one, he stopped in for a chicken biryani on his way to the finish line. Other colts, of course, have looked like the Second Coming of Hindoo in foreign lands only to be shellacked in Louisville on Derby Day. The biggest concern is the little matter of that transoceanic trip back from Dubai, a journey which has left even older horses in disarray for months after their return. Maybe this time will be different. Maybe this time the sky will open up and fairy dust will fall on the European champion. Stranger things have happened. But not many.
The Favorite
There is, as everyone knows, a Cosmic Law which dictates that California trainer Bob Baffert will always have one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. There is unseemly talk of the affable conditioner having one day made an unholy pact with representatives of the Nether Regions, rapscallions who have already proved their mettle in last year’s U.S. presidential election and yet one more reason to make Baffert’s colt, Justify, the Derby choice. But concerns linger.
Before his recent victory in the Santa Anita Derby, Justify had run only twice and not at all as a two-year-old. The last time a horse won in Kentucky without a start at two was when Apollo knocked off the race in (gulp) 1882, though Derby winner Big Brown started only once. Also, Justify was allowed to set his own pace up front at Santa Anita, something he will not be doing in Louisville. Baffert intends to use a more aggressive bit in the Derby to give his jockey better control. On the positive side, Justify beat the next best colt on the West Coast, Bolt d’Oro, by a comfortable margin and the latter is no slouch. And like Mendelssohn, one of his chief opponents, Justify is also a son of the formidable Scat Daddy.
The Easterner
If Bob Baffert has a favorite in the Kentucky Derby, can New York’s Todd Pletcher be far behind? His Magnum Moon is four-for-four and a sparkling winner of the Arkansas Derby. Like Baffert’s charge, however, he is lightly raced and also faced with “The Curse of Apollo,” being a non-runner at two. Magnum Moon made his debut at Gulfstream Park on January 13, winning a three-quarter-mile sprint by 4 1/2 lengths and achieving a 106 Equibase Speed Figure, which pretty much guarantees he won’t be toting passengers around Central Park anytime soon.
Curiously, after his maiden win, Pletcher sent his colt to Tampa Bay Downs for an allowance race on February 15. He sat off the pace in fourth place early, then swept by the small field to win for fun. Sent to Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes on St. Patrick’s Day, he made the other owners green with envy, pulling away for a 3 1/2-length win over a prominent field. Magnum Moon ran the final sixteenth in 6.29 seconds and earned a career-best 109 ESF.
In the Arkansas Derby, Moon surprised by going right to the lead, slowing the pace down for much of the race, then shaking loose to win easily. Critics bemoaned his drifting out in the stretch, certainly a concern. Pletcher thought his horse "”looked like he halfway thought about jumping over tire marks when he went by the eighth pole where the gate was and sort of skipped over those.” Maybe, maybe not. Magnum Moon is by the proven old-timer Malibu Moon, out of an Unbridled Song mare, giving him all the credentials.
The Versatile
It almost seems unfair. Todd Pletcher has yet another Derby contender in Audible, a three-length winner of the Florida Derby, which further illustrated his dexterity. In his previous race, the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, Audible broke alertly and sat close up, stalking the pace set by 30-1 longshot Master Manipulator, who set fractions of 23.59 and 47.14 into the far turn before taking the rest of the day off. Audible took over on the turn and cruised to the win in 1:41.92, galloping out strong. Enticed, the 9-5 favorite finished an unimpressive fourth.
In the Florida Derby, Audible sat far off a hot pace, came rolling up on the turn to take the lead in early stretch and opened up in the last eighth, proving he has the ability to win from anywhere on the racetrack, an invaluable asset. This is one dangerous customer and the current odds of 8-1 seem ludicrous.
The Longshot
Nobody is going to give My Boy Jack much of a shot….other than parents of kids named John. But there’s more to this horse than meets the eye. Trained by Derby stalwart Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his never underconfident brother Kent, handlers can toss this colt in a trailer and haul him anywhere. He has raced at Santa Anita, Del Mar, Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds and Keeneland, where he recently won the Lexington Stakes. Doubters will point to his seventh-place finish to Mendelsson in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but that was on turf. And was the only time in his 10-race career---other than his maiden race---that Jack finished worse than third. Jack came from the depths of the universe to almost catch Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby despite being twelve wide in the far turn. Besides, how can you not like a horse partly owned by the illustrious Don’t Tell My Wife Stables? He’s a natural.
The Rest Of The Story
Can anybody else win this race? Sure. Despite losing to a loose-on-the-lead Justify in California, Bolt d’Oro is the real deal. Trainer Mike Ruis claims he’s getting better by the day and his eminent sire Medalia d’Oro gives him the genes. Victor Espinoza, who knows a little about winning these races, is up.
Good Magic, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and trained by the magical Chad Brown must improve but his connections are very optimistic. Magic is by the iconic Curlin, who could do anything on a racetrack. Jose Ortiz will ride.
Any other winner would be a shocker. So would My Boy Jack, for that matter. Vino Rosso, also by Curlin and another trained by Pletcher, won the Wood Memorial despite a slow start and a wide trip. You’ve got Pletcher handicapping for you here; he sent Audible and Magnum Moon to the tougher races in Florida and Arkansas, leaving Rosso in NY for the easier Wood. Noble Indy, yet another of Pletcher’s, went to the fourth-strongest race, the Louisiana Derby, winning by a neck over a suspect bunch.
Combatant, despite being by Scat Daddy, would be better off spending the day windsurfing. Enticed has been a big disappointment. Flameaway, another by Scat Daddy, is a hard-knocking sort who is as game as any, just not as talented. Free Drop Billy isn’t good enough. Hofburg has a lot to prove. Instilled Regard, with the worst name in the race, is going nowhere. Solomini---nope. Bravazo---noper. Firenze Fire---nopest. Lone Sailor Is on a slowboat to China. Promises Fulfilled---has apparently promised to tank.
The Gordian Knot
In 333 B.C., the Macedonian conqueror Alexander the Great marched his army into the Phrygian capital of Gordium in modern-day Turkey. Upon arriving in the city, he encountered an ancient wagon, its yoke tied with several knots all so tightly entangled that it was impossible to see how they were fastened. Phrygian tradition held that the wagon had once belonged to Gordius, the father of King Midas, and that any man who could unravel its elaborate knots was destined to become the ruler of all of Asia.
Alexander was fascinated by the challenge. He attacked the knot with a vengeance but little success. After wrestling with it for a time, he stepped back, drew his sword and sliced the knot in half with a single stroke. The watching crowd was dubious of the solution, but Alexander dismissed their doubts. “The puzzle is solved,” he claimed. “It makes no difference how the knots are loosed!” That same night, Gordium was rocked by thunder and lightning, a sign that the gods were pleased. True to the prophecy, Alexander went on to conquer Egypt and large swaths of Asia before his death at 32.
Solving the Gordian Knot is child’s play compared to selecting the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby. We have correctly predicted the Derby winner for six straight years but this is the ultimate challenge, not achievable by the mere stroke of a sword. Though the task is daunting, the reward is great. We look forward to ruling all of Asia for the balance of 2018.
The Envelope, Please….
Normally, there are two or three horses who stand out from the Kentucky Derby field, colts with qualities the others don’t have. This year, there are eight or nine horses who seem capable of winning the race on their best day. A couple of these, Justify, the favorite, and Magnum Moon may well turn out to be superhorses down the road, but there is a reason for the Curse of Apollo. If no horse unraced at two years old has won the Derby since 1882, there’s not solid enough evidence to think it will happen now. Either of those two may win the Preakness two weeks hence, but their lack of experience entering the grueling maelstrom in Lexington weighs against them on The First Saturday In May.
If Bolt d’Oro could not catch Justify in California with every opportunity to do so, why think he can do the job now? Good Magic, trained by two-time Trainer of the Year Chad Brown and alleged to be training like a champion, was defeated by lesser horses in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth and didn’t beat much in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.
If there is superhorse in this race, current not future, he is Mendelssohn, the dazzling winner of UAE Derby in Dubai by a country mile. But no European-based horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby and this one is traveling further than any. There is also the caution not to get carried away by impressive front-running victories, like those of Mendelssohn, Justify and Magnum Moon in their recent races. The speed in the Derby will be breathtaking, in more ways than one. It will be virtually impossible for a front-runner to win the race and several who try it may crash and burn.
All of which leaves the versatile Audible the last horse standing. Audible won the Holy Bull from just off the pace and the Florida Derby from well back. He has sufficient experience and is well-trained. His current odds of 8-1 present an unusual bargain, and probably a very temporary one. There are two reasons for concern, however. The first is the difficulty of coming from very far back to win this race with all the traffic problems inherent. We think trainer O’Brian will opt to keep his charge within striking distance, perhaps just a bit further back than he did in the Holy Bull. The second worry is Audible’s pedigree, which would suggest a runner who prefers distances shorter than a-mile-and-one-quarter, the distance in Louisville. His sire is Into Mischief, not known for instilling stamina, and his dam has heretofore produced sprinters. But nobody’s perfect, right?
1. Audible---no holes in this horse so far. Despite the pedigree, 1 1/8 was no problem and he wasn’t slowing down in the Florida Derby.
2. Mendelssohn---perhaps the best horse in the race. A possible even-money favorite without the travel worries. But maybe he likes flying.
3. Justify---very impressive colt, Baffet-trained, beat everything on the tough West Coast. Will be even better in the Preakness.
Longshot: My Boy Jack---we don’t think Jack can win, but the Churchill Downs stretch is just right for a major closer. Needs a smarter ride than he got in Louisiana but can run all day and could get a piece of the purse with a perfect trip. A show bet at long odds might be worth the risk, but don’t bet the house.
Good luck, punters. We got an unusual amount of correspondence this year and the interest in an open Derby is keen. Seems like everyone is eager to rule all of Asia.
That’s all, folks….and Good Luck!
