“Weep no more, my lady.
Oh, weep no more today.
We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home,
For the old Kentucky home far away.”
Where have you gone, Secretariat, the nation turns its lonely eyes to you? In spite of threats of war, fisticuffs in the streets, congressional carnage over health care and Alfred E. Neuman (What, me worry?) in the White House, the focus of the country moves to teeming Louisville on Saturday for the 143rd running of that colossus of horse races, the Kentucky Derby. There appear to be no Secretariats in the crowded field of 20 thoroughbreds, not even an American Pharoah, so picking a victor is a chore this time around. The Flying Pie’s winning streak, which started with Orb in 2013, is at serious risk as none of the contenders has risen head and shoulders above the mob. The once-a-year gamblers and the grannies who go with horse names, colors or cuddleable jockeys could be in line for a whopping payoff. Someone has to win, of course, and deciding who that someone will be always starts with eliminating a few who definitely won’t. Like these:
Dr. Kendall Hansen, never known as a wallflower, got down on his hands and knees to kiss the Turfway Park track just after his 24-1 longshot colt Fast and Accurate upset the 46th running of the $500,000 Spiral Stakes on March 25th. The winner’s share of the Spiral purse is $300,000 and Hansen will have to pay two-thirds of that to supplement his unnominated horse to the Derby. Will he do it? “Fuck yeah!” he told the waiting press. Uh, Doc….we like your spunk but that’s two hundred THOUSAND dollars we’re talking about. Although your wife does get to wear a pretty hat on TV.
Untrapped, always outside in the Arkansas Derby, was fading fast at the finish. The Arkansas Derby is contested at a mile-and-one-eighth. The Kentucky Derby is run at a mile-and-one-quarter. The winner of the Arkansas Derby is running in Louisville. Who’s kidding who?
We like Mark Casse, the Ocala trainer of State of Honor. We even like his horse, a quick colt who looks to have a nice future. Just not on the first Saturday in May. Despite finishing second, State of Honor was trounced by five lengths in the Florida Derby by Always Dreaming. Guess what? Always Dreaming will be in Louisville Saturday, and he won’t be selling gnocci.
Tapwrit, owned by Ocala’s Bridlewood Farm, trained by Todd Pletcher, sired by preeminent stallion Tapit. Looked to be an improving racehorse. Then they ran the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Tapwrit finished 5th. Beaten 11 lengths. Next!
The Sweet Sixteen
J Boys Echo sat well off the fast pace, roarded up in the turn to demolish a mediocre field in the Gotham. Next out, showed little in the Blue Grass, finishing 4th by 6. We don’t like his name, either.
Okay, we’ll admit it. We don’t think horses who train for the Kentucky Derby out of country are going to win it. So that eliminates Thunder Snow, winner of three in a row, including the United Arab Emirates Derby by a smidgen. True, the horse travels well, having won in France prior to his UAE performance, is well connected and has a nice pedigree. A Louisville win seems too much to ask.
Girvin, the Louisiana Derby winner, is a fast, talented horse, but is he a sound horse? Maybe, maybe not. On April 15, he worked a frisky 47 4/5 half-mile at Churchill Downs’ Trackside Training Center, then came back on April 29 to go five-eighths in :59 at Keeneland. Girvin worked with two different bar shoes on his front feet, the right foot having developed a quarter crack earlier. Skilled rider Rosie Napravnik, wife of the trainer, thinks he’s fine. Even at 100%, however, he doesn’t look the equal of several of these. On the other hand, his owner, Brad Grady, may be the luckiest guy in the horse business. Grady, who owns the Grand Oaks Training Center in nearby Reddick, is among other things a pinhooker, a man who buys yearlings, trains them and sells them as two-year-olds. Last year, he bought a Tiznow colt for $125,000 and last week he sold him for $2.5 million at the Ocala Breeders’ Sale. Lucky? Could be. He also bought one which proved unpopular with buyers and didn’t sell at all. Even luckier. Grady kept that one and decided to run it himself. You guessed it---his name is Girvin.
Practical Joke is a nice colt, good enough to be second in the Blue Grass, in fact. But couldn’t handle 30-1 shot Iwrap in that one and doesn’t appear to want the extra distance of the Derby.
Irap was best in the Blue Grass but could have been beaten with better competition. Showed little earlier despite racing at Sunland.
When the connections of Patch got their turn to select a post position, they marched right up and chose the 20-hole, the outermost gate in the race. Unknowing heads turned: what’s up with that? Why would a man choose to run his horse the longest distance possible when other slots were still available? Perhaps because Patch has no left eye, the victim of an ulcer which never healed, and will be free of the Derby’s early mayhem with his outside post. If Patch was not already the sentimental favorite in Flying Pie country, the fact that Tyler Gaffalione is riding him would make him such. It was only ten years ago we were throwing footballs to a tiny Tyler after training hours at Burley Clouston’s Training Center in Morriston. His mount is a fast-improving sort who ran second in the Louisiana Derby shortly after breaking his maiden. Needs a giant leap to be competitive here but tab for better days down the road.
Battle of Midway gave a gutsy performance in the Santa Anita Derby, almost going gate-to-wire before being nipped in the final strides. Frontrunners rarely win the Kentucky Derby, however, and this race is at a longer distance on a slower track than the California race. If he reverts to his earlier running style and settles off the pace, might prove an interesting longshot.
Gormley came from off the pace to nip Battle of Midway at the wire in the SA Derby. Always well-placed in that one, Gormley took advantage of the fast pace up front, moved up outside the leader and prevailed by the closest of margins. It took a perfect trip to win, and Gormley got it. What is so rare as a day in June? A perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Sonneteer has somehow made the Derby field without winning a race. No maiden has won the Derby since Broker’s Tip in 1933 and we’ll be saying the same thing a week from now. Still, this Calumet-owned entry, trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brash brother Kent, will be running late and could get closer than his very long odds would indicate.
Hence was very impressive in the Sunland Derby, coming from well off the pace to streamroll the field. Then again, you’ll point out, it was the Sunland Derby. Still, a well-beaten Irap came out of that race to win the Blue Grass, so there’s that. And Hence has the running style to do well in Kentucky if he can stay out of late-afternoon Louisville traffic jams.
If the Derby leaders tear through the first half-mile, Gunnevera will be smiling. This is your classic drop-back horse, always coming on at the end. In the Florida Derby, alas, he dropped back to Maitland and forfeited all chance. This race is longer, which is good, and much more crowded, which is bad. Stick around, Gunnevera, there’s always the Belmont. Oh, and you’ll be hearing more about the trainer than his horse this time. The colorful Antonio Sano was actually kidnapped twice in his native Venezuela, which is a record for South American horse trainers. The record safely in hand, he moved to Miami. Antonio’s rider, the Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano, is also from Venezuela. He was never kidnapped but he probably just wasn’t trying.
Lookin’ At Lee. We’re not lookin’ at Lee.
The Final Four
Classic Empire is last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, the best of the 2016 two-year-olds, not that it’s any guarantee of winning in Kentucky. He also has the highest earnings ($2.1 million) of any horse in the field with five victories in seven starts, the last of them this year’s Arkansas Derby. CE is trained by Ocalan Mark Casse and ridden by Julien Leparoux, neither of whom has ever won a Derby. On the other hand, his sire is Pioneer of the Nile, second in the 2009 Derby and oh, by the way, the proud papa of 2015 Triple Crown Champion American Pharoah.
Irish War Cry won the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, then the Wood Memorial in New York, but unaccountably collapsed between those two in the Fountain of Youth, also at Gulfstream. Likes to press the pace, stalk the leaders and come on late. A son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Derby, Irish War Cry has four wins in five starts. Trainer is Graham Motion, who won the Derby with Animal Kingdom in 2011.
McCraken won all of his three races leading up to the Blue Grass, then ran an odd race in Lexington, where he was upset by Irap. The race was his longest, but the distance didn’t seem a factor as he closed to be third after starting well, then dropping back. Sire Ghostzapper gives him plenty of distance credibility. Has smart connections who generally know what they’re doing but McCraken has yet to beat a top contender. Tough horse to figure.
Always Dreaming is trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by John Velazquez and won the Florida Derby like a man racing boys. He’s also three for three going two turns but was not pressed on the pace in any of those. That will not be the case in Louisville assuming he gets to the front, which he may well not. If he doesn’t, he may be the better for it. A mile-and-a-quarter is a long way to go on the lead.
The Crystal Ball Sez:
I guess we have to pick somebody, so here goes the rationale: none of these has proven to be a dominant runner over the long haul. McCraken has talent but lacks the credentials, the Sam Davis at Tampa being his best win. Irish War Cry’s race in the Fountain of Youth is bothersome. Classic Empire would be the pick if he had a couple more races under his belt. All that being the case, here it is:
1.---Always Dreaming. When in doubt, go with the horse who has stayed on schedule and has the proven trainer. Also, Florida Derby very impressive. A shaky nod over….
2.---Classic Empire. Might be the best horse but training interruptions never help when going into a race like this. Trainer Casse is fast up-and-coming but has little experience in Triple Crown battles, which are not like the seventh race at Suffolk. Still, a win by Classic Empire would be less than shocking.
3.---Irish War Cry. His best race could win this. Nice win in Wood Memorial, nothing to criticize except the Fountain of Youth dilemma. Oh, maybe one other thing. He was born in New Jersey.
4.---McCraken. Mystery horse. Don’t think he’s good enough to win but could get a piece. Could also finish 16th. Tough to figure.
There are two horses on the Also Eligible list which could draw into the race if others dropped out. Their names are Royal Mo and Master Plan. You don’t need to write it down.
Next Week
Your Pie will be served on Wednesday again as Bill retires to the eye surgeon for Chapter II of his optical odyssey “Seeing Is Believing.” The right orb, subject of the original repair, is doing just fine, thank you very much, although the discrepancy in vision is disconcerting. Bill popped the lens out of his glasses, thinking the right eye no longer needed help and expecting everything to be hunky-dory. It wasn’t even hunky. It was, in fact, downright dizzying, alarming in fact, so don’t you do it when the opportunity arises. Anyway, as we may have mentioned before, it’s nice to have at least one body part which is now better than it was fifty years ago. We’re working on the rest, but major scientific breakthroughs will be required before we’re successful. MAJOR scientific breakthroughs.
That’s all, folks….
