Thursday, May 19, 2016

The Preakness Looms

 

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“Anyone can love a perfect place.  Loving Baltimore takes some resilience.”—L. Lippman

The oldest thoroughbred racetrack in the United States, to noone’s surprise, is fabled Saratoga in upstate New York.  The second oldest, to everyone’s surprise, is Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland.  Pimlico opened way back in 1870 and was ultimately the result of a dinner party proposition made by Maryland’s then-Governor Oden Bowie, for whom a later Maryland racetrack was ironically named.

Bowie and a few of his friends, prominent racing figures in those days, were living it up at a dinner party in Saratoga in 1868 and it must have been a hell of an evening because they agree to commemorate the event two years hence with a race involving three-year-old thoroughbreds owned by members of the group.  The winner would host the losers for another dinner.  Saratoga and the American Jockey Club bid for the event but Governor Bowie pledged to construct a model racetrack in his own state if the race was to be run there.  His dinner partners agreed and Pimlico Race Course was promptly built.  “Pimlico” was a name given to the area by English settlers in colonial times, those colonists being from an area near London which boasted a famous landmark—Old Ben Pimlico’s Tavern.

Engineered by General John Ellicott, Pimlico was erected on 70 acres of land west of Jones Falls.  The Maryland Jockey Club purchased the land for $23,500 and built the track for another $25,000.  Pimlico was a big hit right off the bat.  On any given day in the late 1800s, Baltimoreans could be seen driving their carriages through Druid Hill Park on their way to the track.  Over the years, Pimlico would host such legendary horses as Man o’ War, Sir Barton, Seabiscuit, War Admiral, Citation and Secretariat, gaining particular fame as the home of the second jewel of racing’s Triple Crown, the Preakness, named for the horse who won the first stakes race (the “Dinner Party Stakes,” of course) staged there.  Early in its existence, Pimlico gained the affectionate nickname “Old Hilltop” due to a small rise in the infield which was a favorite gathering place for trainers and race enthusiasts to view the action close-up.  The nickname remains even though the hill was removed in 1938 to provide a better view of the backstretch.  I mean, nobody wants to change it to “Old Divot.’'

As other forms of gambling have been legalized and expanded across the country while racing’s avid constituency ages, the sport has taken a downhill slide and many tracks have fallen on hard times, some even falling victim to The Grim Reaper’s scythe.  Pimlico’s racing calendar has shortened and there have been rumblings in the past few years of moving the Preakness a few miles down the road to the more popular Laurel Park, a Cardinal Sin in the eyes of serious race fans.  Pimlico is holding on but who knows for how long?  We don’t think of Old Hilltop too much these days, but for one enormous weekend she is still Frontpage News, Queen of the May and the focal point of all racing interests.  And, halleluia!—this is that weekend.

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Disa And Data

In 1873, two years before the first Kentucky Derby, the initial Preakness stakes was run at Pimlico.  The race was won by Survivor by ten lengths over six lesser lights, the greatest margin of victory until Smarty Jones demolished his field by 11 in 2004.

The Preakness’ run at Pimlico was interrupted from 1890 through 1908.  A race of the same name was held in 1890 at Morris Park Racecourse in the Bronx, New York, albeit under handicap conditions and with no age restriction.  There was no Preakness in the following three years.  From 1894 through 1908, a Preakness was held at Gravesend Race Track on Coney Island before returning to Piimlico in 1909.

In that year, a bugler at the track, for no discernible reason, began tootling “Maryland, My Maryland,”  the state song.  The house band joined in, the crowd picked it up and a tradition was born.  The song is still played—and sung—before each Preakness, ala “My Old Kenturky Home” at the Derby.  That was also the year Pimlico began the “painting of the colors” atop the weather vane to honor the winning horse.

On June 19, 2012, the Maryland Racing commission officially changed Secretariat’s winning Preakness time from 1:54 2/5 to 1:53 flat for the 1 3/16 mile distance, establishing that Secretariat had, as most observers believed, broken the Pimlico course record existing at that time.  The correction gives Secretariat the lasting distinction of breaking the records for all three Triple Crown races of that year.  Several hand-clockers had the faster time but the track had been reluctant to alter the official time.  All of this came about after Leonard Lusky, a technical advisor on the Disney movie Secretariat, acquired the official CBS video footage and decided the track time was incorrect.  A panel of five timing experts assembled to analyze the 1973 video was unanimous in its findings, the conservative analysis being that the final time was 1:53.  Two of the panelists called it 1:52 4/5.

It was expected by many that the filly Songbird would line up against the boys in the 2016 Preakness after a rousing victory in the Kentucky Oaks.  Alas, the superfilly contracted a low-grade fever three weeks before the Oaks and was temporarily taken out of training.  Fillies don’t run often in the Preakness but Rachel Alexandra, the last one who did, beat the boys in 2009.

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Secretariat, Ron Turcotte up, before the 1973 Preakness.

 

The Race

Does the phrase “lead pipe cinch” ring a bell?  Horsemen are reluctant to utilize such rhetoric when it comes to a particular race.  Too many things can go wrong, otherwise the favorites would win more than 33% of the time.  Injuries can crop up, the weather might turn foul, a jockey could blunder, your champion might be slow out of the gate, the noise from the crowd is often intimidating.  But if none of the above prove relevant, the 141st Preakness might be one of those lead pipe cinches.  The Kentucky Derby winner is that good.

The most surprising thing so far about the race is that so few Louisville horses will again challenge Nyquist and that so many Derby non-starters will.  In addition to the logical challenge from the place horse, Exaggerator, only Lani, the ninth-place finisher, will try it again.  If you’re wondering why a colt beaten over ten lengths will be back, here’s the chart note: “Lani broke slow and was bumped when Destin came in, settled off the inside, improved slightly into the far turn, was forced extremely wide approaching the stretch, recovered and kept on willingly.”  All this after a long trip over from the United Arab Emirates where he won the UAE Derby in his previous start.  All that being said, Lani is a one-speed plodder lacking the brilliance to handle a Nyquist at 1 3/16 miles.  Maybe later, in the Belmont.

 

The New Guys

Fellowship, by Awesome of Course, missed the Kentucky Derby due to an insufficiency of earnings.  That’s what happens when you lose 10 out of your last 11 races.  The Second Coming of Christ is more likely than a Fellowship win on Preakness Day.

Abiding Star is by Uncle Mo, who had four offspring in the Kentucky Derby.  Abiding Star is trained by veteran Ned Allard, a competent conditioner.  Abiding Star has won five in a row.  Abiding Star will feel like he was hit by a truck after this one.

Laoban, another Uncle Mo, will be near the front with plenty of company.  Decent race in the Blue Grass, which nobody would mistake for a Classic, but we have one question for the owners:  Shouldn’t we break his maiden first?

Uncle Lino is by….oh, you know the routine by now.  He’s by Uncle Mo, who else?  I’m thinking it might be nice to have a piece of Uncle Mo right now.  Ran his legs off in the Santa Anita Derby though overwhelmed by a freight train named Exaggerator.  On the improve, but not yet.

Cherry Wine.  Bulletin coming up: NOT by Uncle Mo.  A solid son of Paddy O’Prado, trained by Dale Romans and headed for better days.  Alas and alack, Preakness Saturday won’t be one of them.

Awesome Speed.  Not such awesome speed.  By Awesome Again, which is altogether too many “awesomes” in one paragraph.  What is this—Jefferson Junior High?  Could be longest odds on the board by post time.  The kind your grandmother likes to bet.

Collected, by City Zip.  The Bob Baffert entry, Javier Castellano up. Solid colt, working well, smart connections, but last year was Baffert’s year.  Watch for this horse down the road.

Stradivari, by Medaglia d’Oro.  Not the Medaglia d’Oro we were hoping for, but the filly Songbird contracted a fever, missed training and won’t put in an appearance.  Stradivari just destroyed his competition in a Keeneland allowance race by 654 lengths and everybody got all excited.  Maybe I’m missing something.  It was a Keeneland allowance race, right?  Trained by top conditioner Todd Pletcher, who wins more races than Jesus but not many called The Preakness.

 

The Envelope, Please

1.  Nyquist.  Big surprise here.  There are only two pitfalls we can think of: (1) a lot of speed up front, and (2) BIG rain.  Unlike the Kentucky Derby contenders, several of these could take off running, contributing to a very fast half-mile and leaving Nyquist’s handlers with a decision to make about placement.  Even so, nobody is likely to run the half any faster than Danzing Candy did in Louisville, for all it got him.  Nyquist sat in quick attendance and ran him into the ground without compromising his own chances.  None of these challengers can go a half in 45-plus and be around for the finish.

The weather could be an issue.  Heavy rains are expected before and perhaps during the Preakness.  Nyquist won the Florida Derby on an off track and the Kentucky race on a wettish surface, but this could be a flood of Biblical proportions better suited to the place horse.

2.  Exaggerator.  Zero for four against Nyquist and not getting any closer.  Head and shoulders above the rest of the field and extremely dangerous on a flooded race track, ala Santa Anita’s for the SA Derby.  Bettors unwilling to support a 3-5 favorite will opt for this one but he’ll have to win one vs. The Champ to convince us.

3.  The show horse is the toughest pick in this race.  Cherry Wine, Uncle Lino and Lani all have a chance, but for us it comes down to Collected and Stradivari.  Tough to pick Pletcher over Baffert in a Preakness but the outside horse might have more upside.  Stradivari.

 

Warning!

There’s a terrible epidemic of Knee Replacement Surgery going on out there, so be careful.  My sister Kathy had one knee done—the day before her birthday, of all things—old friend Jack Gordon’s wife is on the tee for hers and Torrey Johnson’s frau is waiting for clearance to get her second one.  Torrey, himself, has had both knees done.  And that show-off Irana Zisser has had everything replaced—knees, hips and fingertips.  This business is getting as hectic as lid-lifts and tummy-tucks, though perhaps more pragmatic.  I’d prefer hair-replacement surgery but I’ve decided to wait for follicle regeneration.  It’s just around the corner.  It better be.

 

That’s all, bettors….

bill.killeen094@gmail.com