Weep no more, my lady
Oh, weep no more today
We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home
For the old Kentucky home far away.
Last year at this time, American Pharoah was not yet the rampaging superhero he ultimately turned out to be. Entering the Kentucky Derby, he was only a slight favorite over his imposing stablemate, Dortmund, and selecting a winner was no piece of cake. The Flying Pie, of course, eventually got it right and is now three for three in this Derby handicapping business. Maybe we should pack up our modest winnings and go home, but what fun would that be?
The 142nd Kentucky Derby is no less a challenge. It is always a unique race for several reasons, chief among them the exceptional size of the field. Twenty horses go to the post each year in Louisville and not many of them can afford a bad break from the gate. In a normal race of twelve or less horses, there is more opportunity for contestants coming from behind to filter through the field. In a twenty-horse field, that’s one hell of a lot of filtering. That’s why, despite their abilities to close strongly, horses who drop to the back of the pack seldom win this race, Gato Del Sol to the contrary. This is not to suggest that off-the-pace horses cannot win—just those plodders whose riders need binoculars to find the leader at the half-mile pole.
Another major challenge to handicappers is the quality of the field. The Derby is one of the few races in the United States in which virtually all of the top horses choose to lock horns. The old trainer’s code is “to keep myself in the best company and my horses in the worst.” Simply put—to run against the weakest competition available. While stakes races, those featuring the highest level of talent, are usually the easiest to bet due to the relative consistency of the horses, the Derby has a surfeit of good competitors. And with entries coming in from all corners of the country, most of them have not previously run against one another. Add to that the fact that racing surfaces vary widely at different tracks and you’ve got another dilemma.
As if that’s not enough, there’s the weather to consider. Many of the Derby horses have raced less than half-a-dozen times, perhaps never on a wet track, particularly in the cases of the California horses. Louisville, on the first Saturday in May, is often moist, to put it kindly. How will the equines handle the slop—who will falter, who will move up?
What about the jockeys? While many of them have ridden their Derby mounts in previous races, several have not. Some riders may have been riding two or three entries and must now make a choice (and by the way, bettors have been known to go broke trusting the opinions of jockeys). In some cases, very good riders become available when horses they have been riding suffer last-minute injuries or do not accumulate enough points to compete in Louisville. While any trainer would prefer his jockey have experience riding a given horse, there are endless examples of new riders jumping on horses for the first time and equalling or even improving the performance of the regular rider.
The Daily Racing Form, available at all racetracks and probably on-line by now, offers a detailed examination of each race a horse has run, including his time and position at each point of call in those races. This is no picnic for a novice to figure out and even skilled handicappers need a little time in advance of the races to put it all together. Most punters at the track will take the less sophisticated path and purchase the “numbers” sheets of one or another of the sanctified experts like Len Ragozin, the problem being you can’t reduce everything to numbers because there’s just not enough information, especially on horses with just a few starts. Some of you will, of course, opt for the time-honored system of the venerable Mrs. O’Mallahee, who always makes her choices after considering the names of the horses and their stable colors. Laugh if you will, but that’s a nice new Tesla in Mrs. O’Mallahee’s garage. In chestnut.
The Pretenders
First, remember that horses can be added or eliminated after this column is published. Any horses added late will start from the extreme outside, have a ghastly experience and require the aid of a spyglass to locate.
Suddenbreakingnews should be eliminated for having one of those words-jammed-together names. A lot of owners think this is cute, we think it’s….well, uninspired. This horse was uninspired until late in the Arkansas Derby when he roared up to be second, beaten a length. If the Arkansas Derby was American Idol, you could say most of the contestants were from the choir of the Serendipity Road Baptist Church. Next.
Whitmore. Now there’s a name to start the heart racing. Whitmore. Sounds fast, doesn’t he? He was beaten in the Arkansas Derby by Suddenbreakingnews, if that tells you anything. It should tell the owners they’re running him too far. Whitmore wants to run a mile. He told me so himself.
Lani, a horse you may not have heard of, actually won the United Arab Emirates Derby on March 26. He beat three fat emirs and a camel.
Oscar Nominated was, in fact, not nominated to the Kentucky Derby. Which means his owners will have to supplement him at a cost of $200,000. Um, boys, I don’t want to appear irreverent here but $200,000 will buy you a lot of baloney sandwiches. Take the money and run. Elsewhere.
Shagaf was a moribund fifth in the slow Wood Memorial. He was beaten by three fat emirs, two camels, one golden ring and a partridge in a pear tree. A very slow partridge, I might add.
Tom’s Ready. Tom’s not. Really.
Trojan Nation. We’re not sure whether he was named after the University of Southern California sports fans or the high-school boys of America, neither one a rosy prospect. Runner up in the Wood Memorial, which is rapidly turning into the fifth race at Presque Isle.
Nyquist, sporting a breathing patch. He doesn’t need it.
The Contenders. Supposedly.
Majesto saved ground in the Florida Derby on the rail and unimpeded all the way. Still lost by three to Nyquist, who was reading the final pages of Crime and Punishment for the last eighth of a mile.
My Man Sam was a nice second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 9 after being wide on the turn. Nobody noticed Secretariat in the field.
Mo Tom has less luck than anybody. If Good Fortune was a double popsicle, Mo Tom would have two sticks. Nonetheless, big-time closers are up against it in Louisville. Would take a maximum effort to hit the board, but possible.
Danzing Candy is a very fast horse but not for long enough. He could get lucky, though, with only Outwork and Nyquist up front. Nyquist may be willing to sit back just a tad. If not, the Candy will be melted halfway through the race.
Outwork is tough. Won the Wood after an extended battle. As mentioned earlier, however, everybody was moonwalking down the stretch.
Gun Runner. Quick horse, won the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk against Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. Punters don’t like his numbers. Could get on the board with a nice effort.
Brody’s Cause. Might win the race if they moved it to Keeneland. Won the Blue Grass there but not ready for prime time.
Destin. Huge, impressive win in Tampa Bay Derby but unraced for eight weeks. Trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Javier Castellano, sired by Giant’s Causeway, so there’s that.
Exaggerator at the spa.
The Big Five
Creator. Fast-improving Winstar Farm horse trained by Steve Asmussen. Comes from well back and requires a fast pace, which he’ll certainly get in the Derby. By the outstanding sire Tapit and has a promising future, but is a victory here asking too much?
Mohaymen. What can we say about this character? Looked like he might be the best horse in the country when he entered the Florida Derby undefeated. Rose up coming out of the turn to challenge Nyquist, only to quickly flatten out, finishing fourth. Was it the competition or the off track at Gulfstream that day?
Mor Spirit. Trained by Bob Baffert of American Pharoah fame, ridden by Gary Stevens. Better than you think. Current odds (Thursday a.m.) are 12-1 and worth another look at that price. Beaten soundly by Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby after contesting a deadly pace, still managing to be second.
Exaggerator. Looked like the Beijing Bullet Train flying by The Little Engines That Couldn’t in the SA Derby. Behind by a couple of city blocks on a sloppy track, he roared out of the turn and buried the competition. Question is: Is he this good or did the wet track and fast pace make it look that way?
Nyquist. Undefeated two-year-old champion, best of a good West Coast crop, Nyquist flew East to take on Mohaymen on his home track and scored a knockout. Named after a Swedish hockey player for the Detroit Red Wings, this horse has answered all the questions except one: can he run a mile-and-a-quarter fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby?
The Envelope, Please.
1. Nyquist. To be The Champ, you’ve got to beat The Champ. So far, nobody has done it. He breaks from a middling post (13), which shouldn’t hurt. Usually on the lead early, jockey Mario Gutierrez may be content to allow Danzing Candy or Outwork to run in front for awhile if either can get there. The latter breaks from Post 15 but Danzing Candy is widest of all at No. 20. Nobody is a cinch in this race and the break is critical for Nyquist. Barring bad luck or a stamina liability, he should win it.
2. Exaggerator. If the wet track rather than a fast pace was the key to this horse’s Santa Anita runaway, he may be out of luck in Louisville where racegoers are expecting bright sunshine for a change. We’re reluctant to select deep closers to place in the Derby but there was no ignoring this colt’s performance in the California race, as impressive as anything we’ve seen this year from a three-year-old. If Exaggerator wins, it will be the the first time in history a team of brothers (trainer Keith, jockey Kent Desormeaux) has taken the Big Race. Oh, and you’ll be hearing about it from Kent.
3. Mor Spirit. Notice a trend here? The top three selections are all from the West Coast. While most of the top horses in California are bred in Kentucky and broken in Florida, they race against tough SoCal competition conditioned by classics-experienced, high-profile trainers, piloted by the country’s foremost jockey colony. If the track was a telling factor in the Santa Anita Derby—and it well may have been for this big guy—expect a top performance in Louisville.
4. Mohaymen. The best in the East and looking like maybe the top horse period until he was kneecapped by that gangster, Nyquist. Was it the off track? His connections certainly hope so, the Florida Derby being such an aberration in form. We’re disinclined to attribute too much to the off going but we’re also disinclined to dismiss this horse out of hand after one bad start. At his best, he’s good enough to win, a little less may be good enough for second.
5. Creator. How do you get a nice name like “Creator” from those old retrobates at the Jockey Club naming bureau? Probably by being Winstar Farm, one of the leading lights in racing. This horse is improving by leaps and bounds but he’s still faced with having to close well in a twenty horse field. Even if he’s not quite ready to win this one, Creator will be heard from down the road. And maybe not far down the road, either.
Okay, so there you have it. If you bet our horses the last three years, you’re not rich but you’re comfortable. But, alas, do we ever hear from our little winners/disciples? Does anyone ever pen a quick note from the Mercedes dealership while picking up their shiny new vehicle? Do we ever get a nice email which includes a photo of your new manse on the Windermere golf course? I think not. Not even a chocolate bar. It’s a good thing we’re not the sulky, vengeful types. The kind of people who might hide the winner down in that list of Pretenders.
That’s all, folks….
