Kryptonite In The Hay Rack?
LOOK! UP IN THE SKY! IT’S A BIRD! IT’S A PLANE!! IT’S SUPERHORSE!!!
Maybe not. Before we declare him the second coming of Seattle Slew, let’s put that pitcher of Triple Crown Kool-Aid back in the fridge for a minute and take another look at American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby. Was he the best horse on the First Saturday In May? Sure. Did he destroy a strong Derby field in eye-opening time? Not exactly. Never worse than third after breaking from the 15 gate, American Pharoah found himself with much to do after going an unnecessary five-wide in the far turn and trailing stablemate Dortmund and surprisingly spunky Firing Line, neither of which was slowing down at the time. The fractions were slow—23.24….47.34….1:11.29….1:36.45—culminating in a pokey final time of 2:03.02, one of the slower Derbies on record, a fact which supposedly allowed the front-runners to hang on as long as they did and making Pharoah’s comeback even more impressive.
Reviewing the race a couple days later, however, a number of racing writers wondered if Dortmund and Firing Line were actually compromised by the track condition, having shipped in from lightning-fast Santa Anita while American Pharoah had come from Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, certainly no quagmire, but not to be mistaken for the speedy California venue. Mike Watchmaker of the Daily Racing Form cited as evidence Santa Anita runner Bayern and his last-place finish in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes earlier in the program, though neglecting to mention Bayern always runs better when he gets a quick lead, something which did not occur in Louisville. It was also Bayern’s first start in almost six months. Maybe that had something to do with it, Mike. We’re dismissing the slower-track controversy, however, because Firing Line, suspect at the Derby distance, ran the greatest race of his life. American Pharoah won anyway, perhaps because both of his main rivals find 1 1/4 miles a step too far.
The Preakness at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore will be run at 1 3/16 miles, a sixteenth shorter than the Kentucky Derby and on a faster track, barring uncooperative weather. This should help Dortmund and Firing Line. Nor will it hurt the speedy Divining Rod, who may inherit the role expected from Materiality, whose trainer, Todd Pletcher, decided to save for the Belmont. Divining Rod likes the front but could change tactics after winning his last race, the Lexington Stakes, from just off the pace. If he opts for the lead, however, Dortmund and Firing Line might prefer to give it to him, avoiding the head-to-head contest which compromised the chances of both in Kentucky. Where does all this leave American Pharoah? Well, in a real struggle if he doesn’t bring his A-Game. And why wouldn’t he? Well, a few considerations….
This will be American Pharoah’s fourth race in 63 days, a tougher grind than that of his two chief rivals. For Dortmund, it will be his fourth start in 68 days and for Firing Line only his third start in 55. Pharoah’s schedule is standard operating procedure for non-winners of two at Aqueduct but a little stiff for classics contenders. On the other hand, how will Firing Line respond to the quick turn-back when he is used to long vacations between starts? In the Derby, one scribe counted jockey Victor Espinoza’s whip landing on Pharoah THIRTY-TWO times as he overtook this opponents, though trainer Bob Baffert alleged most of the strikes were to the saddle towel. “It was to keep him busy,” Baffert went on, “the horse wasn’t responding on the turn for home.” I hate to be an alarmist but that doesn’t sound especially encouraging to me.
The Preakness will be an eight horse race. Ocala trainer Mark Casse’s Danzig Moon is soldiering on after finishing a good fifth in the Derby. There is no reason to expect a better placing in the Preakness but he did get $60,000 for third (the same purse you net for winning a $100,000 stakes race), so why not? The other entries are Boddhisattva, Tale Of Verve and the out-again, in-again Mr. Z, whose previous owner, Ahmed Zayat, opted out of the Preakness before selling the horse to Calumet Farm, which opted in. None of the three will be mistaken for Secretariat. Preakness contenders who have not run in the Kentucky Derby have not exactly distinguished themselves in this race over the years and it’s doubtful that will change dramatically on Saturday.
If You’re Looking For Cinderella….
On May 20, 2006, heavy favorite Barbaro, impressive winner of that year’s Kentucky Derby, entered the Preakness starting gate undefeated, a serious threat to win racing’s first Triple Crown in decades. Just a few seconds and one bad step later, he had fractured three bones in and around the fetlock of his right hind leg, immediately ending his racing career and threatening his life. Next day, he underwent surgery at the prestigious New Bolton Center at the University of Pennsylvania and hopes for his survival were high. In July, however, he developed laminitis in his left rear leg. Barbaro underwent five further operations, his prognosis varying during an exceptionally long stay in the Intensive Care Unit. Eventually, the colt developed laminitis in both front legs, making his salvation practically impossible. He was euthanized on January 29, 2007. Television viewers rode Barbaro’s scary roller-coaster for months along with his owners, Roy and Gretchen Jackson, who were devastated by his demise after the extended period of hope and toil.
This Saturday, the Jacksons return to the Preakness with Divining Rod, their first entry since 2006. “You have two choices,” Roy Jackson avers. “You can sit and dwell on it, which accomplishes nothing. Or you can go on to new things. We chose to move on. We still think about him.” Divining Rod enters the Preakness with two wins in five starts, including the Coolmore Lexington on April 11 at Keeneland.
Divining Rod’s presence symbolizes the rewards of looking ahead, something his owners plan to emphasize whenever possible this week. “We’ve put the rest of it behind us. We can’t wait to see what this horse can do,” Jackson said. “We hope he’ll be competitive. We feel like he deserves to be in the race. All we want is a good trip and a chance.”
Amen to that, brother. That’s all any of us can ask for.
The Envelope, If You Must….
Even with the paucity of horses entered, this is the toughest race to pick since we started this classics selection business. I have no doubt, all things being equal, that American Pharoah is the best of this three-year-old crop. But all things are not equal, Pharoah has a disadvantage in his recent racing schedule and now in his Post Position. The No. 1 horse has won only once in the last 21 installments of the Preakness, a disadvantage tough to ignore. While rival trainer Todd Pletcher got stuck with the inside posts (2 and 3) in the Kentucky Derby, Pharoah (and Dortmund) conditioner Bob Baffert was saddled with the 1 and 2 holes this time. Pletcher’s horses could not overcome the onus. Can Baffert’s?
Meanwhile, trainer Simon Callaghan has the catbird seat, the outside post, with wily rider Gary Stevens up. His horse, Firing Line, ran a terrific race in Louisville, just missing at a mile-and-a-quarter. The Preakness, being one-sixteenth shorter, gives him a big chance and whatever his odds are they will be too long, just as Pharoah’s will be too short. If he’s ever going to beat the champ, this seems like the time.
We have to pick somebody, so….
1. American Pharoah. A shaky nod to the best horse. The rail is not the best place to be, as the past futility from the No. 1 spot testifies, but there are generally more than eight horses in the race. Also, Dortmund is just outside him in Post No 2 and he should be forwardly placed, allowing Pharoah a little room to maneuver. If Divining Rod goes to the lead, with Dortmund and Firing Line following, the Derby winner could sit a logical fourth on the rail, ahead of the remaining horses. If the track is dry and the rail is fast, could be an advantage on the far turn where last race he went unexplainably wide.
2. Firing Line. Might be ready for his best race but the turn-back time of two weeks is a worry. Used to having plenty of time between starts. Must try to avoid head-to-head battle with Dortmund—or Divining Rod, for that matter. Can run in front or just off the pace.
3. Dortmund. Well, gee Bill, you just picked the finishing order of the last race. Can’t help it, this is the most likely scenario. I don’t think Dortmund can win on the lead, even if he inherits an easy one. Firing Line will press hard throughout and American Pharaoh should be closing well at the end. Best for this colt to sit just off Firing Line and make one late run, hoping to outduel his stablemate.
That’s the way it looks from here. If one of the top three falters, someone else may pick up a piece but I’ll be hornswoggled if any but the top three wins, and I’m not hornswoggled often. It’s not a happy condition, this hornswoggling, and often leads to deep malaise, which is not a fate to be wished on your worst enemy. Unless, of course, he’s Rush Limbaugh. Good luck with all your racing purchases. And all you Buddhists out there—I know what you’re thinking—but don’t you dare waste your good assets on Bothisattva. Like an old friend of mine, you’ll go home without your shoes.
Kathleen graduates from Medical School. Further evidence The Flying Pie stimulates brain cells.
Notes
For all who asked, Norm was sold at the Ocala Breeders Sale auction for a spiffy $38,000. Not enough to buy a seat on a moon rocket but plenty for goat feed. Cosmic Saint is working well in New Jersey and going to all the big concerts. Siobhan’s niece (and Flying Pie disciple) Kathleen Ellison graduated from medical school last week in the top tenth of her class, which proves that smart people can ingest this column with no serious complications. Yet. We went up to Johnson City, Tennessee for the Big Moment at ETSU and visited with our old pal and one-time Internet Hero Court Lewis and his better half, Margaret. We like Margaret because she thinks The Flying Pie is hilarious and she bakes good bread (in that order). The Lewises live in a gigantic house in the little town of Unicoi, which sounds made up but is actually there. We have proof of all this and will present it soon if this Triple Crown business ever gets finished.
That’s all, folks….
