American Pharoah
In 1978, two American thoroughbred racehorses rose from the depths of anonymity and propelled themselves to the front pages of newspapers around the world. One of them was Kentucky-bred Alydar, a gleaming chestnut colt bred to the teeth, a son of the speed-siring Raise A Native, raised and raced by the blue-blood Calumet Farm in Lexington. The other was Affirmed, bred by Louis Wolfson at his Harbor View Farm in Ocala, also a chestnut, this one a brilliant grandson of Raise a Native via his son Exclusive Native. Today, the two names are most often spoken together—Affirmed and Alydar….Alydar and Affirmed—because of their incredible Triple Crown races of 1978, all won by Affirmed, but not without a battle. And make no mistake about it—these two were not merely the best of an average lot. A colt named Sensitive Prince was the fastest kid in town and Wood Memorial winner Believe It was no slouch.
In the Kentucky Derby, Alydar went off at 6-5 odds, while Affirmed was 9-5 and Sensitive Prince 9-2. The latter blazed to the lead with Affirmed content to sit third in the early going, Alydar remaining far back. Affirmed made a big move on the far turn and roared to the lead, putting away a challenge by Believe It and holding off a fast-closing charge by Alydar to win by 1 1/2. Alydar partisans complained their jockey, Jorge Velasquez, let his mount fall too far off the pace; next time would be different.
And the Preakness Stakes was different. This time, Affirmed set the pace with a closer Alydar making his big move on the turn, similar to Affirmed’s tactics in the Derby. The Florida-bred held but a short advantage entering the stretch and Alydar looked primed for the victory, particularly with the experienced Velasquez vying with the teenaged classics rookie, Steve Cauthen, on Affirmed. But The Kid hung on, Affirmed prevailing by a neck and now threatening to become the eleventh winner of thoroughbred racing’s coveted Triple Crown.
Alydar’s partisans were apoplectic. Nonetheless, they had no doubt, given the Preakness finish, that the extra 5/16 of a mile of the Belmont Stakes would settle Affirmed’s hash. Trainer John Veitch also decided to remove Alydar’s blinkers, hoping that his horse, given a better look at his nemesis, would get by him. The wily Cauthen was able to slow down the pace, however, going the first quarter mile in 25 seconds and the half in 50. Velasquez kept Alydar close to the pace and moved alongside Affirmed with more than seven furlongs remaining. The two extraordinary colts raced neck and neck the length of the stretch, pulling away from the rest of the field. In mid-stretch, Alydar briefly got his nose in front and Affirmed seemed to be tiring. Cauthen immediately went to a left-handed whip, something he had never before employed in his eight rides on Affirmed and his horse grittily responded, winning by a nose after the fastest last mile in Belmont history following its third slowest start. Despite the three defeats, Alydar’s prestige remained high. In August, he finally bested Affirmed, if by disqualification, when Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, substituting for the injured Cauthen, cut Alydar off on the far turn of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, causing his rival to check suddenly. Affirmed finished first but was placed second. The two horses never met again. And there has never again been a three-year-old rivalry to equal theirs.
American Pharoah Vs. Dortmund
Finally—maybe—this is it. California trainer Bob Baffert’s two colts, have been kept apart for their careers, the dynamic once-beaten American Pharoah and the lanky still-undefeated Dortmund. American Pharoah lost his first start last August at Del Mar while ridden by Martin Garcia, ironically the current rider of Dortmund. Since then, the Pioneer of the Nile colt has ripped off four straight, all stakes, under Victor Espinoza, who rode California Chrome to victory in last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Pharoah’s victories have been increasingly impressive, none by less than 3 1/2 lengths. Last out, he destroyed the Arkansas Derby field by a widening eight lengths. Dortmund, meanwhile, has annexed six straight, including the Santa Anita Derby last out by 4 1/2. While he has won his last two races on the lead, Dortmund was forced to come from behind in his other races, winning two of them by a mere head over the determined Firing Line, also a Kentucky Derby contender. Both of Baffert’s horses like to run near the front, but neither requires the lead to win, both favorable indicators of Derby success. Any racing fan would like to be privy to the pre-race conversations between trainer and jockeys in Kentucky, where the two favorites must be kept from going one-on-one too early and perhaps opening the race up for someone else. And if there is going to be someone else, who might it be?
Dortmund Edges Firing Line
The Contenders
If the Kentucky Derby was run at 1 1/16 miles, Firing Line might win it. Dortmund was all out to beat him in the Los Alamos Futurity run at that distance, winning by a last-second head bob. Firing Line also lost by a head to Dortmund at the same distance in the R.B. Lewis while trouncing the rest of the field. Unfortunately for him, the Kentucky race is a stamina-testing 1 1/4 miles. If 1 1/16 is a head too long, how can another 3/16 help?
If Baffert’s two horses are not going to win it, perhaps one of East Coast trainer Todd Pletcher’s charges will. The colt with the most credentials is Carpe Diem, who has the connections (Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez, owners Winstar Farm & Stonestreet Stables), the pedigree (by classics sire Giant’s Causeway out of an Unbridled Song mare) and the race record, four wins in five starts, including the Bluegrass Stakes by three. Like Baffert’s two standouts, he runs near the front and can surely get the distance. His one loss was to Texas Red in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he broke tenth and battled back to finish second. Unfortunately, drew the inside, with Post #2. Since 1988, no horse in the 1-2-3 gates has won the Kentucky Derby.
Materiality, another Pletcher horse, won the Florida Derby in good time in only his third start. He will have a new rider, Javier Castellano, in this race as John Velazquez remains on Carpe Diem. You’d like to have a little more foundation under your Derby horse but this one seems unfazed by increasingly difficult challenges. His biggest yet might be escaping from the mob when he breaks from the gate in Post Position #3. Trainer Pletcher is going to have to come up with some better Good Luck Amulets in the future; his two best chances drew two of the three worst posts.
El Kabeir is the ultimate mystery horse. Raced by the Zayat Stables, also the owners of American Pharoah, but trained by New Yorker John Terranova, this horse has won such impressive races as the Gotham Stakes, the Jerome and the Withers, all Grade 3 races in New York, as well as the Kentucky Jockey Club, a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs. He has also lost in the Champagne Stakes by seventeen lengths, tiring on a sloppy track, was second in the Grade 2 Nashua and an undistinguished third in the Florida Derby when his jockey, C.C. Lopez, lost touch with the field and came running way too late. Lopez has been replaced by the rail-riding Calvin Borel, who was on El Kabeir in his Churchill Downs win in November. You will get a BIG price on this horse, big enough to take a second look.
Frosted won the Wood Memorial in New York by two against a good field after losing two in a row to Kentucky Derby contestant Upstart. He is trained by the wily Kiaran McLaughlin with Joel Rosario up. The latter rode him for the first time in the Wood and is a jockey par excellence. Has been better in New York races than in Florida, however, and they won’t be holding the Derby at Aqueduct.
Upstart is a very tough colt, never worse than third in his seven race career and the one show finish was against the cream of the crop in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Still, disappointed as favorite in the Florida Derby and might be a peg below the top three or four. Might get a piece with a big unimpeded run at the finish.
International Star ground out a win in the Louisiana Derby but seems in deep here. Nonetheless, he’s three for three as a three-year-old, is sired by Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus and owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey, who may be the luckiest people in the horse business.
Carpe Diem
The Pretenders
Okay, he’s not going to win but ya gotta love him. Mubtaahij was born in Ireland, raced twice on the turf in England, finishing fifth and seventh. His owner, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum, decided to ship him to the United Arab Emirates, where the livin’ is easy and the competition is….well….not stiff. Mubtaahij, now racing on the dirt, reeled off four of his next five starts including the UAE Derby. We may be unimpressed by all this but the purse for that thing is TWO MILLION DOLLARS, even if that’s only cigar money for the Sheikh. Anyway, on April 16, they flew Mubtaahij to Amsterdam and, after a layover, all the way to Chicago, where he settled into a quarantine barn at Arlington Park. Emerging from quarantine, he trained for a short time in Chicago then jumped onto a Louisville-bound van this past Tuesday. Is he, um, a little tired? “Fresh as a daisy,” says trainer Mike de Kock, who, not being a horticulture expert, could be exaggerating a smidge. Anyway, even if he loses, he’s probably accumulated enough air miles for a free vacation in Dar es Salaam. It’s only another piddling 8,383 miles to get there.
Stanford is a nice horse who went to a good college. He is owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Todd Pletcher, who has summoned up from oblivion somebody named Florent Geroux to ride. One big problem: Stanford is not interested in running a hefty 1 1/4 miles. He’s been trying to tell people that in his last couple of races but they just won’t pay attention.
Mr. Z. Another one owned by Zayat, this guy trained by the venerable D. Wayne Lukas. Has run twelve times, earning a cool half-million. His only win, alas was in a maiden race. Need we say more?
Far Right. Should have been named Far Left, because that’s where he’ll be at the finish—Far Left of the winner. Very far.
War Story. Surely you jest.
Keen Ice. How about Thin Ice?
Itsaknockout. Enough said.
Bolo. Nolo.
Danzig Moon. Maiden win only.
Tencendur. Ditto.
Ocho Ocho Ocho. Oucho! Oucho! Oucho!
And if anybody draws in from the Also Eligibles….well, too bad for them.
The Envelope, Please!
Anything can happen in a horse race, let alone the twenty-horse land rush known as the Kentucky Derby. It only takes one small mistake to put a good horse out of the picture—a bad break from the gate, a split-second jockey’s decision to go for an opening that suddenly isn’t there, an unwise contesting of the pace—all of them can compromise the best of horses. And that’s if they actually make it to the race. Last minute injuries and illnesses have left their calling cards in the past and they can and will happen again, sooner or later. But our job here is to select the best horse, the runner with the most talent and gumption over a taxing mile-and-a-quarter. If all the Derby entrants ran to the best of their abilities, who would win? And that would be….
1. American Pharoah. Dynamic. A great turn of foot. No weaknesses. Owned and trained and ridden by people who know what they are doing. Has the look of a special horse. Getting better all the time. Would prefer something closer in than the 18 gate but the far outside could prove a benefit; not much traffic. Will take a colossal effort to beat him.
2. Dortmund. Big, rangy colt (17.2 hands), competitive, versatile, has never lost. Tough to pick against an undefeated horse but a couple of them were as close as it gets. Nonetheless, does what he needs to do, never gets tired, can run all day.
3. Carpe Diem. Wins without dazzling anybody but hasn’t run his best to date, looks to have more in the tank. Post Position will be difficult to overcome but not impossible.
Longshot: El Kabeir. He won’t win the race but he could get a piece at long odds.
Sorry there are no surprises but that’s the way we see it. American Pharoah could be the best to come along in some time and still lose this race. Dortmund will not give it up easily and some unlikely colt may run the race of his life. Bad racing luck could enter the picture as it has so often in past Classics. It often rains on Derby Day and the place could be a quagmire. The moon could explode and splatter the track with slippery hunks of green cheese. We still like American Pharoah.
“AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!!”
