The Champ Awaits
Not “The Test Of A champion,” the slogan which generally appears in today’s media. Winning a single mile-and-a-half stakes race, even if it is called the Belmont, does not a champion make. But it can a champion prove. California Chrome, winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, the first two gems of racing’s Triple Crown, stands on the brink. No thoroughbred has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed performed the task thirty-six long years ago. Eleven have come close, winning the first two legs as Chrome has done, only to be felled by misfortune, insufficient racing luck, dubious tactics or inadequate genes when Hammer Time arrived.
Two days following the Preakness, my gym pal Barbara walked up to me and sadly commented “I don’t think he’ll win the Belmont.” “Me either, Barbara,” I answered. After all, California Chrome had just been extended in the much shorter (mile-and-three-sixteenths) Preakness, first moving early to chase two horses with no chance of winning the race and later holding off a flying Ride On Curlin, who was blazing down the stretch. And then there was this: Seven of the last fourteen horses who have won the Belmont lost in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. There would some serious talent lining up in the gate for the Belmont, well-rested and eager for the distance. And finally: something always seems to happen to derail the dream. Spectacular Bid steps on a safety pin or Real Quiet is caught in the final stride or I’ll Have Another comes up with an injury the day before the race and is scratched. Like Roseanne Roseannadanna famously told us, it’s always something.
Now, with the race just a few days away, I’m not so sure. First, there is no question as to who is the most talented horse in the field—California Chrome wins hands down. He has proven his ability and shown his mettle in the previous two races. And his pedigree doesn’t really disqualify him, as if he were the produce of pure sprinters. Reports from Belmont have Chrome training like a banshee, as if the past two races have proved more beneficial than harmful, and those reports are coming from always-dubious nit-picking racing writers, never known for gilding anybody’s lily. So perhaps reconsideration is in order. The adversity that doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, after all, isn’t that what the sages contend? We’ll see soon enough. All is in readiness. The old racetrack will be bursting at the seams with citizens who haven’t been to the races in twenty years. The candidate approaches with confidence and strength. Let’s just hope that no dunderheads leave open safety pins laying around.
The Last Time
When Secretariat came storming down the stretch to win the 1973 Belmont by a stunning 31 lengths, annexing the first Triple Crown in 25 years, it was like the Second Coming of Christ in racing circles. Like now, many people were convinced it would never happen. The Triple Crown was too difficult, they nattered, the time frame for the three races should be expanded, three races in five weeks was too much. Fortunately, sanity prevailed and no changes were made. After all, the Triple Crown is not meant to be won by every Tom, Dick and Mr. Ed who comes down the pike, it’s special. And so should be the horse who wins it. I, for one, am not to be found weeping when the triple is not achieved by a horse who has won the two previous legs. “Oh, isn’t it a shame about poor old Stewball—he just missed by an eyelash,” whines Everyman. Well, no, it is not so terrible. If Stewball was good enough, if he had the genes and the gumption and the talent, he would have found a way. I don’t want somebody winning the Triple Crown every couple of years—how special would that be?
In 1977, rumors arose out of New York that an unstarted two-year-old was working in unheard of times in preparation for his maiden race. That horse was Seattle Slew, who lived up to all the lofty expectations of racing fans to emerge the only horse ever to have won the Triple Crown while undefeated. Hmph, two winners of the triad of classics in four years….must be getting easier.
In 1978, perhaps the most exciting and best contested trio of races occurred when Florida-bred Affirmed met the Kentucky blue-blood Alydar. By the great sire of speed, Raise A Native, a son of the heralded Native Dancer, the chestnut flash enjoyed the kind of pedigree that Kentucky horse people drool over. Affirmed, on the other hand, was born in Florida, the son of Exclusive Native, and despite the fact the latter was, himself, begat by Raise A Native, Alydar had the favored pedigree. Perhaps nobody told Affirmed about this shortcoming, however, entering the 1978 Kentucky Derby. When the gates opened, the lightning-fast Sensitive Prince went to the front while Affirmed, with teen-aged Steve Cauthen riding, was content to run along in third position. Alydar, for some reason stayed far back. On the far turn, Affirmed made a strong move for the lead, put away Wood Memorial winner Believe It and held off the fast-charging Alydar to win by a length and a half. Oh no, a Florida-bred had won the sacred Kentucky Derby!
All Kentucky was aboil. What the hell was wrong with jockey Jorge Velazquez, dropping back so far? Surely the Preakness would prove Alydar the better of the pair. I mean, did you see him coming in the stretch? Harumph and double-harumph!
In the Preakness, Affirmed took the lead early but Alydar stayed closer this time. On the far turn, he made a bold move, similar to that of Affirmed in the Derby. Affirmed held only a precarious lead entering the stretch and Alydar was gaining. As the track announcers are fond of screaming, Down The Stretch They Came! At the end, it was Affirmed by a mere neck. “Dang!” roared the Kentuckians, jumping up and down in considerable lather. “But we’ll get him in the Belmont!”
They weren’t the only ones who thought so. Racing fans looked at the pedigrees, the added distance and Alydar’s finishing style and many felt the Triple Crown would be denied. Alydar’s trainer John Veitch also removed his horse’s blinkers for the Belmont, feeling that if Alydar got a better look at Affirmed he’d get by him.
Steve Cauthen may have been just a kid but he was a very smart kid. When the gates opened, he went to the lead and set a very slow pace, getting the first quarter in 25 seconds and the half-mile in 50. Velazquez kept Alydar close to the pace. With seven furlongs to go, the horses were side by side. For more than six furlongs, the two raced neck and neck, pulling away from the rest of the field. Alydar got his nose in front in mid-stretch and it appeared that Affirmed might be tiring. Cauthen went to a left-handed whip, something he had never done before in his eight rides on Affirmed. Perhaps it was the whip and perhaps it was his own stubborn refusal to yield, the quality required of a true champion when placed under duress. Affirmed battled back. When the wire came, it was he with his nose in front, the valiant Alydar left frustrated once again. Affirmed had won the Triple Crown. He won it because he was a special horse and he had to battle another special horse to achieve the victory. These are the kind of animals who deserve to win Triple Crowns, to be elevated to the hierarchy of racing’s elite. In a couple of days, we’ll see if California Chrome deserves a place among them.
Affirmed, Inside, Edges Alydar In Belmont
Almost, But Not Quite….
In this century, five horses have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes but, for one reason or another, could not annex the Belmont. In 2002, War Emblem, ridden by Chrome’s rider, Victor Espinoza (who had never seen the horse until the morning of the race) took the Derby at odds of 21-1, giving trainer Bob Baffert his third Derby winner in twelve tries and followed up by winning the Preakness. In the Belmont, he stumbled and nearly fell to his knees coming out of the gate and was last in the early going. He had the courage to persevere and even made the lead in the turn before fading at the top of the stretch, disappointing most of the 103,222 in attendance, the largest crowd in Belmont history. The race was won by 70-1 shot Sarava.
In 2003, the extremely popular Funny Cide a New York-bred gelding, won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. He was the first N.Y.-bred to win the race and the first gelding to win since 1929. Ocalan Tony Everard bought the horse at the prestigious Saratoga Yearling Sale for a meager $22,000, broke and trained him and later sold him to trainer Barclay Tagg for $75,000. Tagg put together a large consortium of owners, many with little horse racing experience, who were a colorful element of the horse’s adventures. The 2003 Belmont, like many, was run on a wet track, but the crowd there to see the New York-bred win the Triple Crown was huge. For some reason known only to him, jockey Jose Santos chose to ride the horse close to the rail where the mud was deepest. Funny Cide finished third, behind a fresh Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted, two horses who had skipped the Preakness.
The third Triple Crown opportunity in three years arrived in 2004 with Smarty Jones, whose racing career got off to an inauspicious start. Training in the gate as a two-year-old, he spooked, reared and smashed his head on top of the gate, falling to the ground unconscious, blood pouring from his nostrils. His trainer, John Servis, thought he was dead; he had, in fact, fractured his skull and severely damaged the bones around his left eye, which appeared at risk. After three weeks in the hospital and a month resting on the farm, Smarty Jones went back into training, having recovered completely. As a three-year-old, he won the Arkansas Derby, then the one in Kentucky, followed by an 11 1/2 length romp in the Preakness, a record. In the Belmont, he set a very fast pace, leading much of the way before his pedigree caught up with him and he was passed by the distance-favoring Birdstone, the only horse ever to have passed Smarty Jones in a race.
It was four more years before another Triple Crown opportunity presented itself. In 2008, Big Brown, the only horse ever named after a delivery service, roared to the fore, winning the Kentucky Derby from the 20 gate, the first horse to do so since 1929. He then won the Preakness, his fifth win in a row, by 5 1/4 lengths as a 1-5 favorite. His trainer, the shady Dick Dutrow, admitted that he administered stanazol, an anabolic steroid, to his horses, including Big Brown, on the fifteenth of every month, causing a great kerfuffle in the press even though the steroid was not banned in any of the Triple Crown states. For whatever reason, he said he would not administer stanazol for the Belmont.
On the Friday following the Preakness, a three-inch quarter crack was discovered on Big Brown’s left front hoof, the same injury he had experienced the previous Fall. It was stitched together with steel wire and dismissed by Dutrow as just a “little hiccup.” For the Belmont, the horse wore a second set of stainless steel sutures on the inside of his hoof, also an acrylic and fiberglass adhesive patch to the hoof. He missed three days of training but seemed fine. In the Belmont, for which he was a monster 3-10 favorite, Big Brown was rank early, nearly running up on the heels of eventual winner Da’ Tara. When jockey Kent Desormeaux tried to swing the horse to the outside on the first turn, he bumped into Tale Of Ekati. He was urged in mid-stretch but failed to respond, stopping as he came around the final turn, then being eased and becoming the first Triple Crown hopeful to fail to finish. Furious trainer Billy Turner railed against the performance of his rider but a picture taken after the race revealed a dislodged shoe on Big Brown’s right hind leg which could have been the cause of his troubles.
In 2012, I’ll Have Another, named for his owner’s cookie addiction, went off at odds of 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby in what was considered an unusually strong field. In front of a record crowd of 165,307, he caught Bodemeister in the closing stages, disappointing trainer Bob Baffert and his odd child, for whom the horse was named. In the Preakness, Bodemeister appeared to have his tormentor beaten, only to see I’ll Have Another rally in the final strides to win by a neck.
It seemed that I’ll Have Another would have little competition at the Belmont distance. His previous rival, Bodemeister, had been passed twice at a mile-and-a-quarter and would not tackle the longer distance. No one else seemed viable. On the day before the Belmont, however, I’ll Have Another’s trainer, Doug O’Neill announced that the horse was out of the Belmont with a tendon injury, ending his Triple Crown hopes. Since the injury would require three to six months for recovery, the horse was retired, becoming the third horse, after Burgoo King in 1932 and Bold Venture in 1936, to be scratched from the Belmont after having won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Aye, there’s many a slip ‘tween the Preakness and Immortality. Let’s hope California Chrome doesn’t run across any banana skins.
Betting The Belmont
Alright, it’s time to have a little fun. Whenever we have a situation where there is an enormous favorite (California Chrome is 2-5 in the morning line), there is opportunity afoot in the land. In addition to the regular bettors, scads of gentlefolk will buy tickets at Belmont Saturday with no intention of cashing them should their choice, California Chrome, become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Better to keep that historical souvenir, especially at those odds. What all this means is the odds on every other true contender in the race will be unrealistically high, providing bettors with a spectacular opportunity. For that to come to fruition, of course, California Chrome would have to disappoint. Still, it is not that expensive to box a trifecta ($12), so the amount that could be lost is insignificant and the possible winnings are huge. All you have to do is calculate the three top finishers. And we’re here to help.
The first step, as Johnny Mercer told us in 1944, is to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, latch on to the affirmative and don’t mess with mister inbetween. There are eleven horses in the race, for our trifecta we need only three. We have already decided to take out California Chrome so we must remove seven others First, we eliminate the negative. Johnny would be so proud.
First out is Matuszak, trained by the erstwhile Bill Mott and ridden by the reliable Mike Smith. Bill, what are you doing here? Do you know something we don’t know? This horse should be 99-1. And that’s because the tote board doesn’t go any higher.
Next out is Matterhorn, trained by leading trainer Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo up, and still eligible for a non-winners of two allowance. Gee, maybe I should have put Cosmic Flash in here, he’s running at the same level. I think Matterhorn will be a very good horse someday. Just not Belmont Day.
Third to go is General a Rod. Nice horse at a shorter distance, had all kinds of trouble in the Derby and the Preakness. Mike Maker trains with Rosie Napravnik up, which helps, but not enough.
After that comes Medal Count. It’s getting harder now but we must forge ahead. Medal Count is a good horse who had trouble in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby and finished up the track. He can get the Belmont distance of a mile-and-a-half, which is more than some can say. Won’t win the race but could mess up our trifecta.
Okay, so we’re down to six. Johnny says not to mess with mister inbetween and that would be Commissioner, another Pletcher horse, ridden by top jock Javier Castellano. It’s nice that he is by a Belmont winner—and a good one—A.P. Indy. It’s terrific that his mother was also. None of that helped in the Peter Pan stakes (admittedly much shorter) when beaten by Tonalist. I don’t think so.
Okay, I’ve got it down to five for you. You’re going to have to do some work yourselves. Any of the remaining five is a threat not only to break up our trifecta but even to win the race.
The Challenger (Ride On Curlin) Gallops
Peerless Prognostications
1. California Chrome. Two weeks ago, I would have said no. But now, all but one of the reasons to pick against him have disappeared. Though he can be fractious in the gate, in a race this long he has plenty of time to recover. His physical appearance and workout performances belie any notions that the previous two races have extracted a great toll from the horse. He has already beaten all of the real challengers in the field except Tonalist, who will be popular as a winner of the Peter Pan. Winners of that race, usually horses stabled at Belmont like Tonalist, have historically performed well in this race. The only remaining question, and it is a big one, is can he get the distance?
2. Ride On Curlin. His Preakness finish was no fluke. Top rider aboard. Any improvement off that race could make him a winner here. Hard to see him off the board.
3. Wicked Strong. Traffic problems in the Derby, still finished fourth. Can get the Belmont distance. Rested since Louisville. Ran well here in the Fall. Wood Memorial winner. Courageous. Good enough to win it.
4. Samraat. Ran well in the Derby. Fires every time. A real racehorse, wants to win. Possible distance issues.
5. Commanding Curve. Big late run to be second in Kentucky. Clever trainer, horses often perform better than expected by bettors. Still, passed tired or troubled horses in Derby stretch and one big race is not enough evidence for me.
6. Tonalist. Nice horse, wisely managed by first-rate trainer Christophe Clement. Big time rider Joel Rosario aboard. Many people give this horse the best shot to beat Chrome. Good as he may be, there’s a ton of competition in this race. He has not been in this kind of rodeo before. Post position helps, jock can place him wherever he wants. I like him better in the Travers in August, but can’t ignore.
The time is nigh. The horse is ready. The question being, Will The Fates Be Kind?
THEY’RE OFF!!
