Gimme Shelter
It’s not nice here in sunless Florida, where the deer and the antelope vacation. Tropical storm Andrea, who sounds pleasant enough, is bouncing up the peninsula towards us, bringing with it torrents of rain, 40 mph winds and a bunch of those tiny 30-second tornadoes that gleefully bollux up trailer parks, yawn and go into early retirement. This is just sissy stuff to stouthearted Oklahomans who continue to duck and dive and pack into their tiny storm cellars to avoid the Wrath of Kong tornadoes that play hopscotch all over their poor downtrodden state, but it’s downright annoying to us. It’s conceivable they could cancel Lila’s dog-training class tonight and if there’s one thing Lila needs it’s dog training. Her effusive daily greetings of the delivery men are getting out of hand—it’s a good thing they’re all big—and she’s not getting any smaller. Not to mention the real danger, that being a possible loss of power on Blog Day. If you’re getting this late—like maybe tomorrow—you’ll know why. We’re optimistic, however. Right now, it looks like the worst of it won’t arrive until early this afternoon and we usually finish up by two.
Storms like Andrea are typical this time of year in our environs. They develop quickly in the Gulf and shoot North or West mas rapido, unlike the pokey old African hurricanes which give you plenty of time to get out of the way. Those buggers show up later, mainly in August and September, and scare the bejeezuz out of everybody in Florida before turning right and wrecking the whipping-boy Carolinas or blasting New Orleans or Texas or some poor backwater in Mexico. Every now and then, we get nailed, particularly the Florida Keys, but not as often as you might think. This rainstorm is expected to shoot on up the coast all the way to the Northeast and could play hell on Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, which is almost guaranteed to have a wet track. Great. All you need when you’re slogging a rare mile-and-a-half is a colossal mudhole. Nor is it so great for the City of New York, itself, which insists on sending some ambassador out there to sing that braggadocio New York, New York as the horses come onto the track. Hey, New Yorkers—nobody likes that song except YOU! And that’s why, each year, we revert to the old Belmont song, published below. If it was good enough for Secretariat, it’s good enough for us.
The Sidewalks Of New York
Down in front of Casey’s
Old brown wooden stoop,
On a Summer’s evening,
We formed a merry group;
Boys and girls together,
We would sing and waltz,
While the ginnie played the organ
On the sidewalks of New York.
East side, West side, all around the town,
The tots sang “Ring-a-rosie,
London Bridge is falling down.”
Boys and girls together,
Me and Mamie O’Rourke,
Tripped the light fantastic
On the sidewalks of New York.
The Race
Back before the Preakness, this race looked like Orb’s for the taking. He looked to be easily the best horse and the one-and-one-half-mile distance of the Belmont gave him plenty of time to overcome the problems which can arise for a closer. The Preakness, however, showed another side to Orb. Trapped inside most of the way, he clearly didn’t like his position. Nor did he seem to take to the surface. The slow pace set by the winner, Oxbow, didn’t do closers any favors and Orb ended up a well-beaten fourth. We said all along the Preakness would be Orb’s toughest test and circumstances combined to do him in. So, what now? Was Orb’s brilliant Kentucky Derby just a mirage? Will he return to form in a race which should suit him? Inquiring minds want to know.
While nobody can tell you how much the previous two races took out of their participants, Orb continues to train well, showing no signs of flagging due to overwork. Works are not races, however, so the true test awaits. We think Orb will rebound here because he is still the best horse. If the track is wet, which seems very likely, it is not something he hasn’t seen before—the Derby track was also wet. His post position (5) is not ideal but it is better than the rail post he got in his last race. And jockey Rosario, no dummy, will probably try to get him outside earlier this time. We think Orb will be hard to beat.
Oxbow may never again be blessed with the trip he enjoyed in the Preakness, when he went to the front, set a very slow pace, and prevailed. There was a doomsday pace in the Derby, set by Mike Smith on Palace Malice, and the jockeys responded by exercising too much care in the second gem of the Triple Crown. Palace Malice will have the blinkers off for this one, by the way, which should slow him down a tad. Left on an easy lead—like Oxbow—this is a dangerous horse, but we expect a legitimate pace in this one. As if we know anything.
A lot of people like Derby second Golden Soul in here. I have a lot of trouble reading this horse. He was another beneficiary of the suicide pace of the Derby and got a perfect trip in that race, which was the best he ever ran. He sat out the Preakness and that should help. Was his Kentucky race a fluke or is he the real deal? Good question.
Revolutionary has the lowest morning-line odds (5-1) of anyone but Orb (3-1). His Derby was very good, though he saved ground all the way while Orb took the overland route and Revolutionary was no danger at the finish. There is some scuttlebutt about lost weight from tracksiders and his connections discussed saving him for the Travers in August, neither of which bodes well.
The Hot New Thing is Freedom Child, who won the Peter Pan Stakes on this same racetrack in a virtual walkover on a wet (sealed) track. Everybody loves this sort of horse—a huge winner in his last start—often without considering the quality of the opposition, which was modest. He likes the front end but he will have a lot of company up there.
For those of the female persuasion, you have a champion in here—a very good filly named Unlimited Budget. Her pedigree suggests she can get the distance and Rags To Riches earlier proved a filly can win this race. The morning line is 8-1, which might be a little optimistic.
We can’t make much of a case for anyone else. In order, Kenny McPeek and/or his owners must be dreaming if they think Frac Daddy can win this thing. Overanalyze, a Pletcher horse, is hot and cold and pretty risky at 12-1. His owner, Mike Repole, likes to take a shot and will run a lot of horses up the flagpole. Giant Finish belongs elsewhere. Incognito, by the super sire A.P. Indy, is a tough horse to figure, having won two of his last three before being buried in the Peter Pan by Freedom Child on a speed-favoring, if wet, track. Long odds, might be worth a show bet.
Midnight Taboo, another Repole fantasy, might be longest odds on the board and probably should be. D. Wayne Lukas keeps bringing Will Take Charge to the party but the horse never does. Vyjack is a good horse who should be running in easier (and shorter) races.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see Orb upset but it’s hard to make a case for anyone likely to do it. Therefore:
1. Orb
2. Unlimited Budget
3. Freedom Child
If you want to have a little fun, you could take a flier on Palace Malice or Incognito. Either one will pay a bundle. Good luck and may the Good Lord take a likin’ to you.
Reverie
Every year, when the Triple Crown comes up and these columns are primarily devoted to horse racing, I wonder how many eyes glaze over and how many Flying Pies are quickly dispensed with by readers looking for alternate fare. Imagine my surprise then when May’s totals were the second highest ever, beaten only by this year’s January readership, that month containing The Girls of Summer, an elegy to Marilyn Todd Guinn read by half the population of Austin, some twice. So thanks for that. There are, of course, benefits to following all the racing stuff. Katherine Chamberlain read the Derby column and told all her friends Orb would win. Naturally, they all thought she was brilliant after that. I hope Katherine didn’t push her luck and announce that Orb would also win the Preakness, as predicted here.
And by the way, May only lost to January by ONE meager reader. That’s what happens when you go on vacation, Barbara. Is it more important to see the Grand Canyon or to help push your favorite blog over the top? Never mind getting back to us on that one.
Cosmic Update
The Fastest Horse In The World, Cosmic Flash, is busily tuning up for his Big Event in Miami. The Frank Gomez Stakes, named after a long-time Calder trainer, is scheduled for June 22 at Calder and he has a good shot. The field should be relatively small and God knows he’s well rested.
We wish we could give you happy news about his ex-playmate, Scarlet Siren, but—alas—there’s no good news to be had. The filly seems happy and healthy but continues to work poorly. Perhaps God decided to give all the talent to the colt and leave Scarlet Siren with none, who knows? We’re going to work her out of the gate and run her anyway. On rare occasions, a horse will prove a different animal in the afternoon in the heat of battle. On rare occasions. Our old trainer, Dominic Imprescia always said “Horses run like they work.” If that’s true in our case, we’ll have to send a bus out to the backstretch to find her. Nonetheless, hope springs eternal.
Well, lookee here! We’ve gone and finished the column and the rain has let up, the better to send it to you. If we’re not flooded out, we’ll see you next week to explain why none of our picks performed as anticipated. We’re very good at hindsight. It comes from many years of looking at hinds.
That’s all, folks….
It’s not nice here in sunless Florida, where the deer and the antelope vacation. Tropical storm Andrea, who sounds pleasant enough, is bouncing up the peninsula towards us, bringing with it torrents of rain, 40 mph winds and a bunch of those tiny 30-second tornadoes that gleefully bollux up trailer parks, yawn and go into early retirement. This is just sissy stuff to stouthearted Oklahomans who continue to duck and dive and pack into their tiny storm cellars to avoid the Wrath of Kong tornadoes that play hopscotch all over their poor downtrodden state, but it’s downright annoying to us. It’s conceivable they could cancel Lila’s dog-training class tonight and if there’s one thing Lila needs it’s dog training. Her effusive daily greetings of the delivery men are getting out of hand—it’s a good thing they’re all big—and she’s not getting any smaller. Not to mention the real danger, that being a possible loss of power on Blog Day. If you’re getting this late—like maybe tomorrow—you’ll know why. We’re optimistic, however. Right now, it looks like the worst of it won’t arrive until early this afternoon and we usually finish up by two.
Storms like Andrea are typical this time of year in our environs. They develop quickly in the Gulf and shoot North or West mas rapido, unlike the pokey old African hurricanes which give you plenty of time to get out of the way. Those buggers show up later, mainly in August and September, and scare the bejeezuz out of everybody in Florida before turning right and wrecking the whipping-boy Carolinas or blasting New Orleans or Texas or some poor backwater in Mexico. Every now and then, we get nailed, particularly the Florida Keys, but not as often as you might think. This rainstorm is expected to shoot on up the coast all the way to the Northeast and could play hell on Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, which is almost guaranteed to have a wet track. Great. All you need when you’re slogging a rare mile-and-a-half is a colossal mudhole. Nor is it so great for the City of New York, itself, which insists on sending some ambassador out there to sing that braggadocio New York, New York as the horses come onto the track. Hey, New Yorkers—nobody likes that song except YOU! And that’s why, each year, we revert to the old Belmont song, published below. If it was good enough for Secretariat, it’s good enough for us.
The Sidewalks Of New York
Down in front of Casey’s
Old brown wooden stoop,
On a Summer’s evening,
We formed a merry group;
Boys and girls together,
We would sing and waltz,
While the ginnie played the organ
On the sidewalks of New York.
East side, West side, all around the town,
The tots sang “Ring-a-rosie,
London Bridge is falling down.”
Boys and girls together,
Me and Mamie O’Rourke,
Tripped the light fantastic
On the sidewalks of New York.
The Race
Back before the Preakness, this race looked like Orb’s for the taking. He looked to be easily the best horse and the one-and-one-half-mile distance of the Belmont gave him plenty of time to overcome the problems which can arise for a closer. The Preakness, however, showed another side to Orb. Trapped inside most of the way, he clearly didn’t like his position. Nor did he seem to take to the surface. The slow pace set by the winner, Oxbow, didn’t do closers any favors and Orb ended up a well-beaten fourth. We said all along the Preakness would be Orb’s toughest test and circumstances combined to do him in. So, what now? Was Orb’s brilliant Kentucky Derby just a mirage? Will he return to form in a race which should suit him? Inquiring minds want to know.
While nobody can tell you how much the previous two races took out of their participants, Orb continues to train well, showing no signs of flagging due to overwork. Works are not races, however, so the true test awaits. We think Orb will rebound here because he is still the best horse. If the track is wet, which seems very likely, it is not something he hasn’t seen before—the Derby track was also wet. His post position (5) is not ideal but it is better than the rail post he got in his last race. And jockey Rosario, no dummy, will probably try to get him outside earlier this time. We think Orb will be hard to beat.
Oxbow may never again be blessed with the trip he enjoyed in the Preakness, when he went to the front, set a very slow pace, and prevailed. There was a doomsday pace in the Derby, set by Mike Smith on Palace Malice, and the jockeys responded by exercising too much care in the second gem of the Triple Crown. Palace Malice will have the blinkers off for this one, by the way, which should slow him down a tad. Left on an easy lead—like Oxbow—this is a dangerous horse, but we expect a legitimate pace in this one. As if we know anything.
A lot of people like Derby second Golden Soul in here. I have a lot of trouble reading this horse. He was another beneficiary of the suicide pace of the Derby and got a perfect trip in that race, which was the best he ever ran. He sat out the Preakness and that should help. Was his Kentucky race a fluke or is he the real deal? Good question.
Revolutionary has the lowest morning-line odds (5-1) of anyone but Orb (3-1). His Derby was very good, though he saved ground all the way while Orb took the overland route and Revolutionary was no danger at the finish. There is some scuttlebutt about lost weight from tracksiders and his connections discussed saving him for the Travers in August, neither of which bodes well.
The Hot New Thing is Freedom Child, who won the Peter Pan Stakes on this same racetrack in a virtual walkover on a wet (sealed) track. Everybody loves this sort of horse—a huge winner in his last start—often without considering the quality of the opposition, which was modest. He likes the front end but he will have a lot of company up there.
For those of the female persuasion, you have a champion in here—a very good filly named Unlimited Budget. Her pedigree suggests she can get the distance and Rags To Riches earlier proved a filly can win this race. The morning line is 8-1, which might be a little optimistic.
We can’t make much of a case for anyone else. In order, Kenny McPeek and/or his owners must be dreaming if they think Frac Daddy can win this thing. Overanalyze, a Pletcher horse, is hot and cold and pretty risky at 12-1. His owner, Mike Repole, likes to take a shot and will run a lot of horses up the flagpole. Giant Finish belongs elsewhere. Incognito, by the super sire A.P. Indy, is a tough horse to figure, having won two of his last three before being buried in the Peter Pan by Freedom Child on a speed-favoring, if wet, track. Long odds, might be worth a show bet.
Midnight Taboo, another Repole fantasy, might be longest odds on the board and probably should be. D. Wayne Lukas keeps bringing Will Take Charge to the party but the horse never does. Vyjack is a good horse who should be running in easier (and shorter) races.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see Orb upset but it’s hard to make a case for anyone likely to do it. Therefore:
1. Orb
2. Unlimited Budget
3. Freedom Child
If you want to have a little fun, you could take a flier on Palace Malice or Incognito. Either one will pay a bundle. Good luck and may the Good Lord take a likin’ to you.
Reverie
Every year, when the Triple Crown comes up and these columns are primarily devoted to horse racing, I wonder how many eyes glaze over and how many Flying Pies are quickly dispensed with by readers looking for alternate fare. Imagine my surprise then when May’s totals were the second highest ever, beaten only by this year’s January readership, that month containing The Girls of Summer, an elegy to Marilyn Todd Guinn read by half the population of Austin, some twice. So thanks for that. There are, of course, benefits to following all the racing stuff. Katherine Chamberlain read the Derby column and told all her friends Orb would win. Naturally, they all thought she was brilliant after that. I hope Katherine didn’t push her luck and announce that Orb would also win the Preakness, as predicted here.
And by the way, May only lost to January by ONE meager reader. That’s what happens when you go on vacation, Barbara. Is it more important to see the Grand Canyon or to help push your favorite blog over the top? Never mind getting back to us on that one.
Cosmic Update
The Fastest Horse In The World, Cosmic Flash, is busily tuning up for his Big Event in Miami. The Frank Gomez Stakes, named after a long-time Calder trainer, is scheduled for June 22 at Calder and he has a good shot. The field should be relatively small and God knows he’s well rested.
We wish we could give you happy news about his ex-playmate, Scarlet Siren, but—alas—there’s no good news to be had. The filly seems happy and healthy but continues to work poorly. Perhaps God decided to give all the talent to the colt and leave Scarlet Siren with none, who knows? We’re going to work her out of the gate and run her anyway. On rare occasions, a horse will prove a different animal in the afternoon in the heat of battle. On rare occasions. Our old trainer, Dominic Imprescia always said “Horses run like they work.” If that’s true in our case, we’ll have to send a bus out to the backstretch to find her. Nonetheless, hope springs eternal.
Well, lookee here! We’ve gone and finished the column and the rain has let up, the better to send it to you. If we’re not flooded out, we’ll see you next week to explain why none of our picks performed as anticipated. We’re very good at hindsight. It comes from many years of looking at hinds.
That’s all, folks….
