My Old Kentucky Home
The sun shines bright on my old Kentucky home,
Tis Summer, the darkies are gay.
The corn top’s ripe and the meadow’s in bloom,
While the birds make music all the day.
The young folks roll on the little cabin floor,
All merry, all happy and bright.
By ‘n’ by, hard times come a-knocking at the door,
Then my old Kentucky home, good night.
Weep no more, my lady.
Oh, weep no more, today.
We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home,
For the old Kentucky home far away.
He might not win the 139th Kentucky Derby but Orb has all the credentials to make him the favorite, which I expect him to be over Verrazano by post time. He has done the most. He has answered all the questions. And his last work prior to the Derby was perfect. Both Bill Mauk (picks below) and I can’t look past him. Orb certainly looks like the best horse but the favorite is often beaten in the Kentucky Derby by bad luck and circumstances. Due to our own race at Calder on Thursday, we’re writing this column one day early so we don’t know the post positions yet and they could certainly be a factor. If Orb is parked out at the 20 gate, maybe I’m hedging my bet. I expect a fast pace in the Derby, with Orb not too far out of it. If unimpeded, I think he will beat the closers to the punch. A lot of things can go wrong in a 20-horse race which finds horses running a quarter-mile longer than any of them have run before, but on merit we’ll take Orb.
I tried to leave Verrazano out completely. I didn’t like the way he finished in the Wood and the Derby is longer yet and with a faster pace. Nonetheless, he has never been beaten and that counts a lot with me. His pedigree suggests he should get the distance, even though that is suspect. Verrazano is trained by top conditioner Todd Pletcher and ridden by ace jockey John Velazquez, which always helps. Nonetheless, he will have to run better than he has so far to win the Kentucky Derby. And he might.
I am going to take a flier on my third horse, selecting Java’s War. He’s really up against it here, being a poor breaker who comes from way off the pace. I’m figuring Kenny McPeek has done everything he can to correct the gate problems and the horse will improve his gate performance Saturday, and he’d better. If he breaks reasonably well and can stay within hailing distance of the leaders, he has a chance. He can run all day and will finish strong. He has an excellent rider in Julien Leparoux, who doesn’t make many mistakes. Not to mention, he will go off at a nice price.
Okay, I admit it—I’m a homer. But I really do think Itsmyluckyday, trained by Calder-based Eddie and Laurie Plesa, has a shot. I wish he had a couple more races under his belt, but c’est la vie. Orb left him in the final furlong of their last match but Itsmyluckyday had been off for two months….for some reason. Everybody wants to win but I think the Plesas would be happy to get on the board in this one.
This means I have left out some top horses which are expected to be right there at the end. Goldencents, from California, is one of these. He had a terrific performance winning the Santa Anita Derby but the field was suspect. And his rider, Kevin Krigger, is a Derby rookie. A competent, confident rookie, but a rookie nonetheless. Revolutionary, another Pletcher horse, ridden by old Derby hand Calvin Borel, can’t be dismissed, nor can the fast-closing Normandy Invasion. One of Bill Mauk’s picks, Mylute, has Rosie Napravnik up, and Rosie would like nothing better than to be the first female Derby winner. I think the race is too long for Myluke.
That’s what I think. Now, we’ll turn you over to Bill Mauk for another slant on things.
Bill Mauk’s Selections
Hola, Piefolks! I’m sitting up here in Lexington, Kentucky, where I operate a horse brokerage business, with a pencil and a bottle of Crown Royal whiskey, picking horses the Kentucky way. If I am wrong, of course, I reserve the right to blame it on the bottle. I was going to write this tomorrow, after the post positions were chosen, but Bill rushed me into it a little early….so, knowing what I know, here are my picks:
My overall #1 pick is Orb. He’s got the best chance of winning this type of race. He has the pedigree to get the 1 1/4 mile distance and he has the running style. He can be positioned about 2nd to 4th and let the speed on the front end burn out, then make a big move to get the roses for his overdue trainer.
My second choice is Goldencents. He has the speed to get great position and should be up near the lead. If the speed holds up, he could win it all. Should be in the top four for sure.
Will Take Charge is a horse which is improving with maturity. You can never count out his trainer, Wayne Lukas.
Mylute is fast-improving and has an extra-hungry jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who has a lot to prove. She would be the first female to win the Derby and she damn sure wants it.
You also have to watch for Revolutionary, mostly due to the fact he is piloted by Calvin Borel, who has won three Derbies. Calvin LOVES to ride at Churchill Downs and he knows how to boot home a big upset.
Hey, best of luck to everyone out there involved in this fabulous sport. I’m writing slower now after a few of those Crowns and my 17-year-old girlfriend needs some attention, so I gotta go. Been a pleasure! Bill Mauk
Better be careful, Bill. She’s probably just telling you she’s seventeen. On second thought, you probably have nothing to worry about. I temporarily forgot the age of consent in Kentucky is eleven.
Fastest Horse In The World Debuts
Cosmic Flash is celebrating Derby week with his first trip to the post in the sixth race at Calder Thursday, thus the early blog. The field looks tough, particularly a colt named Torrid Heat, trained by the formidable Wesley Ward and working in comparable times to Cosmic Flash, albeit on faster racetracks. Our friend and co-racegoer, Irana, says she’d rather have a Cosmic Flash than Torrid Heat, anytime, however, and trainer Larry Pilotti says he wouldn’t swap horses with anybody, so there’s that. Still, there are currently eight other horses in the race who are not going out there just for the fun of it. In a race this short, it’s imperative to get a good break from the gate and to enjoy a little racing luck. All things being equal, we expect to win. Don’t bother betting, the odds will be tiny. Torrid Heat is the morning-line favorite, though I expect our horse to replace him in that role by post time and the odds will probably be 2-1 or less.
We had a few scary moments in the days leading up to this race. In his last work—out of the gate—Cosmic Flash, going three-eighths, had to contend with an older horse going five-eighths. Cosmic Flash went his distance in a bullet 35.2, but the other horse was close behind. When the jockey tried to pull him up, he resisted, as you would expect a competitive horse to do, and the rider said he “felt funny” behind, not propelling himself normally as he galloped out. Great. The vet went over him with a fine-tooth comb, however, and found nothing. He was not off at all and acted normally. After a Sunday off, he went to the track next day and jogged, the better to spot a problem. His rider said he felt “great”. Next two days, he galloped well. Still, you wonder if something noxious will pop up in the heat of competition. We’ll find out soon enough. It’s almost Race Time. The fat is in the fire.
Welcome, Serena!
Our old pal, Cosmic Light, dam of future champions, finally got around to having her foal last Friday night around 11:30, very considerately allowing us to sleep the night. Dot, as we call the mare, usually has smallish foals, but this one was large, almost as big at birth as the foal of our other mare, Wanda, is a month later. She is very quiet so Siobhan decided to call her Serena. I always liked Venus better, myself, but there is no arguing Serena is the superior tennis player. Serena is a product of little planning. We had bred Dot to Cosmic Flash’s sire, Hear No Evil, three times with no luck and decided to move on since it was getting late. Brent Fernung, master of Journeyman Farm where Hear No Evil stands, suggested another stallion, St. Anddan. “He gets everybody in foal,” said Brent, and his offspring, what there were of them, had performed well. Bred her once and bingo—pregnant. If the baby is eventually successful, we’ll take full credit, of course, for our prescience in stallion selection. Serena’s picture is below.
Alright, then. So, it’s off to pursue another dream. Most of these things don’t work out but it never stops us from being optimistic the next time. Even if we do win, you always have to worry about God. Maybe it’s my Christian upbringing or maybe it’s just me, but if something very good happens, I’m always looking out to be slapped down by the Almighty. I drive very carefully on my way home from the track and call the caretakers at home to make sure the house didn’t burn down and none of the horses jumped the fence and ran off down the road. These things happen, you know.
And no complaints about our Derby picks, please, if you heed our words, bet and lose all your money, especially you, Stuart Ellison. We’re not soothsayers here, just a couple of guys having a little fun. On the other hand, if you do happen to win a pile, don’t forget where you got your valuable handicapping information. Send all bonus checks to me, of course. I’ll be sure to pass his share on to Mauk. You can trust me.
That’s all, folks. And GOOD LUCK!
