Thursday, May 16, 2013

Orb Gets Closer

Maryland, My Maryland

Thou wilt not cower in the dust,
Maryland, My Maryland!
Thy beaming sword will never rust,
Maryland, My Maryland!
Remember Carroll’s sacred trust,
Remember Howard’s warlike thrust,
And they all slumberers with the just,
Maryland, My Maryland!


The Race

If there ever was a bridge-jumpers’ Preakness, this is it.  Bridge-jumpers being those clever fellows who dump all their money on a big favorite to run third, the feeling being that whatever misfortune plagues him in the race the worst he can do is show, and everybody gets paid.  And yes, for the laymen, they get paid if he finishes first or second, too.  The odds being what they will be, the payoff is very small in cases like this unless you are a bridge-jumper, in which case you will bet a small fortune.  If you were to somehow lose, well, now you get where the name comes from.

Orb will be odds-on, 4-5 or better, to win this race and not without cause.  Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion, third and fourth in the Kentucky Derby and both with a legitimate chance in the Preakness, have bowed out of the race.  The former never seemed to consider it and the latter’s connections said this week they wanted to “put some weight back on the horse” and wait for the venerable Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August.  That’s a long wait and one wonders if there is more to this than meets the eye.  Nonetheless, by the actions of these two the field is seriously diminished and it is a push to find a believable rival for Orb.  Let’s take a look.

The Hot New Thing is Departing, who took the easier route to the Preakness, winning the Illinois Derby instead of running in the Big Boy race in Kentucky.  If you want to make a buck, this is always a smart plan.  If you know all the Superheroes are tied up in a bombastic interstellar battle with aliens, it might be a good time to rob a little bank in Peoria.  Nonetheless, Departing was outside most of the race and is fast improving.  Morning line is 6-1.

I guess I never learn.  I’m going to say Itsmyluckyday (10-1), trained by Eddie Plesa out of Calder, is alive in this race.  He  was really up against it in the Derby, not having enough work leading up to the race and falling prey to the pace that felled several other viable contenders.  This horse likes to run near the front and he won’t have as much competition up there as last time.  Also, trainer Plesa obviously listened to old Bill’s suggestion and replaced Derby rider Alex Trujillo with the redoubtable John Velazquez, who rode Verrazano in the Kentucky Derby.

If D. Wayne Lukas is going to make any noise in this race, he is probably going to do it with Will Take Charge, the best of his three entries.  (And who thought Lukas would have a trio of entries in the race and Todd Pletcher—with FIVE in the Derby—none?)  Will Take Charge is a son of the proven classics sire, Unbridled Song, and came up a little unlucky in the Derby when running up on a fading Verrazano and having nowhere to go.  Mike Smith is riding.  Hey, Mike—try not to leave the gate until it opens, okay?

Mylute, famous as Rosie Napravnik’s mount, actually ran a decent race in Kentucky, finishing fifth and losing by slightly less than four lengths.  Improving horse, but hard to justify morning line odds of 5-1.  Must improve, and might.

Goldencents is 8-1 in here and has as good a chance as anyone at getting second.  The big question with this horse has always been how far can he run?  Got caught up in the Derby speed duel and collapsed last time but rookie jockey Kevin Krigger is smart and not likely to be fooled again.  Doubt he can beat Orb on his best day, however.

Governor Charlie, a Baffert horse, hasn’t done much lately so he’s certainly fresh.
Doesn’t seem ready for this.  Training schedule a mystery for a horse undertaking such an imposing challenge.

Oxbow, another Lukas horse, always seems to hang around but never does anything exciting.  Lukas third entry, Titletown Five, is 30-1 now and will be more by post time.  That says it all.  Could get the lead, however, and set an unrealistic pace.  If he does that, the others should pay no attention to him.  Can’t get the mile and 3/16ths against this field.

Orb gets the inside post and can save ground most of the way while settling aft of most of the pack.  A friend noticed Orb’s terrific 47+ half-mile work at Churchill the other day and asked me why he doesn’t stay closer.  That’s just the way some horses choose to run in a race and the worst thing you can do is move with them prematurely.  That said, I don’t think Orb can always count on coming from well behind in big races.  If the pace is more reasonable than that of the Derby—and it almost certainly will be if we discount Titletown Five—some horse could run the race of his life and get to the finish first.  It’s often dicey with a closer but in a field of this size Orb should prevail.

1.  Orb
2.  Departing
3.  Itsmyluckyday
4.  Will Take Charge
Outside shot:  Mylute


The Triple Crown

If Orb wins the Preakness, as expected, the clatter leading up to the Belmont will be monumental, partly because Orb is a perfect mile-and-a-half horse and partly because hardly anyone else is.  There will be at least one new player of consequence in this one, Peter Pan winner Freedom Child, who won that prestigious stakes at Belmont Park last weekend by 13 1/4 lengths, not beating many Belmont Stakes contenders in that one.  There could be another New York-stabled contender, maybe a couple, but the Belmont field will be small, enhancing the chances of the certain favorite, Orb.  If he wins the Preakness, that is.  There’s many a pitfall in horse racing and that’s why no horse has won it since Affirmed did the trick way back in 1978.  AND REMEMBER THIS:  The last three horses to win the Triple Crown—Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat—were ALL horses who ran near the front.  That is not to say Orb cannot pull it off, just something to think about.  Right now, you have to like his chances, barring injury or exhaustion, two thieves always lurking in the night.  But in horse racing, nothing is guaranteed.  We like it like that.


Grouch Of The Week

That would be Siobhan P. Ellison of Fairfield, Florida, who awoke the other morning with mayhem on her mind.

“Why are you awake?” I asked her, tenderly.

“There’s a damn bird out there who won’t shut up,” said she.

Siobhan complained last year when no birds brought their morning serenades to Glacier National Park.  Now we know why.


Return Of The Ellison Overload

If you’ve spent much time in the South, you have undoubtedly been exposed to one of those ever-expanding African-American “family reunions,” where hundreds of relatives gather on some poor soul’s property to hug, chaw down on barbecued ribs and don the same maroon t-shirts celebrating the Sigafoos Family Gathering, 2013.  We have our own occasional Rites of Summer, when Siobhan’s relatives invade our tiny house on the way to somewhere and often on the way back.  This would include retired brother Stuart, now a semi-professional star-gazer, wife Mary, inveterate flea-market hunter of treasures and daughters Ashleigh and Kathleen, together with boyfriends Flo and Yaniv, although Flo may be a no-show this time.  Ashleigh works for Nokia in Berlin and Kathleen is in medical school at East Tennessee University in Johnson City.  It’s a sad fact of life that we don’t get to see Siobhan’s nieces any more.  They used to be here all the time and we kind of got used to them hanging around.  When she was tiny, Ashleigh even got a spectacular jockey outfit to wear.  We took the two girls to the races once in Miami, a round trip of 9 or so hours.  Kathleen said it was an awfully long way to go to watch a two minute race.  She might have a point there.

I, the alleged but not entirely correct “Uncle Bill,” had a lot of fun with these girls, helping them learn to drive when everybody else was afraid to partake.  I even introduced Kathleen to the Interstate.  We stayed in the right lane and got off at the first available exit.  When they were younger, I thought they should learn a traveling song for their many automobile trips.  I thought “Ninety-nine Bottles of Beer on the Wall” might prove a little taxing for their parents so I went with “Clementine.”  Surprisingly, Stuart and Mary did not thank me for this.  It seems that “Clementine,” sung five hundred times in a row can be every bit as noxious as “Ninety-nine Bottles of Beer on the Wall.”  Who knew?

One of our favorite driving activities—and I speak here of the girls and I exclusively—was Buttski-spotting.  You now how some kids like to count telephone poles or different types of cars, boring stuff like that?  We delighted in counting Buttskies….people who might otherwise be saddled with the depressing title “morbidly obese.”  This was great fun and required careful observation at all times, lest a Buttski escape notice.

“Buttski at four o’clock!” Ashleigh might shout.  And Kathleen, not to be outdone, would counter “WHOA!  Coming out of Walgreen’s—Major Buttski Alert!”
None of this went over too well with their parents or Siobhan, of course.  I was charged with fostering prejudice against people of disturbing weight.  I’m sure that’s only a misdemeanor.  And I’m not entirely sure that if one were to actually ASK a Buttski if he would prefer to be dubbed “Buttski” rather than “morbidly obese,” the former might prevail.  Anyway, I have often thought of the girls carrying on this valued tradition through their little lives.  I can see Ashleigh now, a passenger in a vehicle puttering down the Pretzelstrasse—suddenly, she leaps up, sticks her head out the window and points, excitedly.  “LOOK, HEINZ—400-POUNDER OUT FRONT THE LEIDERKRANZ SHOP!”  And Kathleen, the future Doctor, wisely advising her clients thus: “Look, Pal—if you don’t want to be a Buttski all your life, how about lightening up on the suds and brats?”  All this gives me a warm glow inside.  I am even foolish enough to hope that these priceless traditions might be passed on from mother to son or daughter someday and will ring throughout history.  Everybody likes to leave something behind.


Cosmic Flash And His Motley Crew

PuckWin1

Siobhan thought she needed to skootch down so nobody could miss the 6-4 trainer, Larry Pilotti.  Next to Larry is his assistant Gary Jones.  The guy in the red shirt needs to start wearing a hat.  The jockey is Mario Argueta.  The groom (holding the horse) is new and shall go nameless for the nonce.  Next installment of this exciting episode:  June 22, The Frank Gomez Stakes, Purse $100,000.  They give you sixty of that if you win.  That’s a lot of baklava.  We’ll keep you posted.


That’s all, folks….