The sun shines bright on my old
Kentucky home,
Tis Summer, the darkies are gay.
The corn top’s ripe and the
meadow’s in bloom,
While the birds make music all
the day.
The young folks roll on the
little cabin floor,
All merry, all happy and bright.
By ‘n’ by, hard times come
a-knocking at the door
Then my old Kentucky home, good
night.
Weep no more, my lady.
Oh, weep no more, today.
We will sing one song for the old
Kentucky home,
For the old Kentucky home far
away.
No Triple Crown
Winners Here
Not because we don’t have any good horses but because we
have a surfeit of them. There are ten
horses with morning line odds of 15-1 or less.
15-1 might not be so good for the average race on your program but for
the Kentucky Derby it’s very respectable.
The favorite, himself, is 9-2, after all.
That favorite would be the better of Bob Baffert’s two
entries, Bodemeister, named for the
trainer’s son. Bodemeister will break
from post position 6 under veteran rider Mike Smith. He is a very fast horse, could be the fastest
in this race, but Derby winners rarely go right to the lead, a position usually
reserved for also-rans. Bodemeister is
favored mainly off his overwhelming performance in the Arkansas Derby, which he
won by 9½ lengths over a Baffert stablemate.
The question here is how good was the rest of the field? We're inclined to think not very.
Next, at 5-1, is Union
Rags, trained by Michael Matz and ridden by the redoubtable Julian Leparoux,
taking over for Javier Castellano, who is riding Gemologist for Todd Pletcher, one of racing’s two or three premier
trainers. The initial impression might
be that Castellano thinks he has a better shot on Gemologist—and that could be
true—but Pletcher puts Castellano on a ton of good horses (Matz has a much
smaller stable) and that could be a consideration, also. And, Castellano was criticized for his ride
on Union Rags in the Florida Derby, where he was trapped on the rail for an
inordinate length of time. We think a
truly superior horse might still have won that race but Union Rags was not up
to it. Nonetheless, many insiders
consider Union Rags the horse with the most raw talent and he should be running
as well as anybody at the end. His
trainer did it once before with Barbaro.
Creative Cause, a
California horse trained by Heinz Steinman, beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe
and he’s never lost by more than a length.
If he had won his last race, he would probably be the favorite here. Breaks from the 8 post under Joel Rosario. Morning line odds are 12-1 but savvy
handicapper Mike Watchmaker puts him at a much better 6-1.
Gemologist, at 6-1, breaks from post 15 under Castellano. The Kentucky Derby is one of very few races
run with more than 14 horses, which is the number of stalls in your average
gate. That means he will break from the
first stall of the auxiliary gate, which means he will have a little more space
inside to negotiate his break. What we
like about this horse most is that he has never lost in five starts, two of
which were at Churchill Downs, site of the Kentucky Derby. And this is his third race back, after a
layoff. He is owned by a big-time outfit
(WinStar Farm), trained and ridden by people at the top of their games. Some people thought his win in the Wood
Memorial was not terribly impressive but we feel he will run his best at
Churchill.
Dullahan breaks
from post 5 under old pro Kent Desormeaux.
Trained by another old pro, Dale Romans, Dullahan won the Blue Grass
Stakes at nearby Keeneland by 1¼ in an impressive performance. The race track at Keeneland has a synthetic
surface, however, whereas Churchill Downs is a dirt track. Those who like this horse say it will make no
difference. Others aren’t so sure.
Hansen is another
horse who would probably have been favored here if he won his last out. Hansen is the two-year-old champion, having
won last year’s Breeder’s Cup. He is
very fast and will be close to the front, barring traffic problems. He was second to Dullahan in the Blue Grass
after undergoing a soap opera week of acrimony between his trainer, Mike Maker,
and his owner, who decided to dye the end of his tail blue for the “Blue”
Grass. The Keeneland stewards decided
they didn’t like this idea and nixed it, but not before the whole squabble made
the papers. Maker said all the time
spent dyeing and undyeing the tail might have been better spent, inferring a
different result in the Blue Grass might have been attained. We don’t think so.
I’ll Have Another, way out at post 19, was
named after his owner, who never met a cookie he didn’t like. He beat Creative Cause by a nose in the Santa
Anita Derby. His only bad race was in
the slop at Saratoga so you might want to toss him out if it rains—which it
does a lot at Churchill Downs.
Alpha, breaking
from post 11 under Rajiv Maragh, was second, beaten only a neck by Gemologist
in the Wood Memorial after a rough trip and a two month layoff. Still, you never had the feeling he could
beat Gemologist despite the close finish.
Take Charge Indy,
in the three hole, will get a lot of notice because he is being piloted by Churchill
favorite Calvin Borel, who has been very successful in this race. Borel can probably move to his favorite spot,
the rail, breaking from the inside if he chooses. Upset Union Rags in the Florida Derby off a
very smart ride by Borel in which he encountered no traffic problems, something
unlikely to occur in this 20-horse roller derby.
We don’t think any of the other entries is likely to win the
race though somebody could rise up and get on the board. Betting “the field” may be popular this time
around in such an uncertain race but there are too many good horses in here to
let an outsider slip through and win.
Famous last words.
Derby Notes
D. Wayne Lukas, in days of yore always a contender in this
race, is back this time with Optimizer,
the two horse, mostly because ol’ Wayne hates to miss this race. Optimizer has no chance and should be running
on the grass somewhere.
Calder trainer Bisnath Parboo, whose name we love, has the 9 horse, Trinniberg, who looks like a pure
sprinter to us. Parboo wins a lot of
races at Calder and that is where this horse should be Saturday.
One of the nation’s leading riders, John Velazquez, is on
number 13, When The Day Went Well,
which just goes to show you how these races turn out sometimes. A top rider can get locked onto a horse who
gets injured, doesn’t live up to expectations or whatever and miss out on
getting a mount on a more promising contender.
In this case, Velazquez’ horse is extremely promising and may be around
for the big races later on—he just doesn’t look ready for this one.
It’s nice that veteran trainer Hamilton Smith finally has a
horse in the Derby, but Done Talking,
running out of post 17, will find this race a little tougher than the Illinois
Derby, in which he barely beat a dubious cast of characters.
Bob Baffert must have still been in a daze from his recent
heart attack when he entered no. 20, Liaison,
in this race. Although we could always
blame it on the owners. We know how they are.
If you’re looking for a miracle bet—and it would be a miracle—there’s a teeny tiny
possibility that Rousing Sermon, a
closer from way back, might somehow avoid traffic problems and scream up the
stretch to get third under talented rider Jose Lezcano. If Lezcano rides him, that is. Some sites have Luis Contreras on the
horse. But no matter who rides him—probably
not.
More Importantly—What
About Pogo?
He’s in Miami, doing well.
He’ll have his first Calder work Saturday. Couple days ago, he was galloping on the rail
inside another horse and he got a little antsy so trainer Larry Pilotti is
putting the blinkers on, not a good turn of events for Bill. A few weeks ago, while we were watching the
horse train at Eisaman Equine, Siobhan said Larry would have blinkers on him a
week after he arrived. I said he was not
that nervous and Larry would be more restrained. Siobhan bet me $100 on the blinkers. When we told Larry about the bet, he said he
would take the best bribe he could get.
I guess we all know how that
turned out.
Is Anybody Pregnant?
Not Dot, also known as Cosmic Light. To try to change our luck, I sent Siobhan on
the breeding run the other day. I’m not
going to bet her on the results, though.
Maybe Wanda (Fortyninejules), now at 19 days and holding. We’re going to ultrasound her today or
tomorrow.
We sent Zip over to Jason Stodghill’s place to learn to
breed a mare. You remember Jason—he was
the subject of an earlier column about coyotes.
He put “coyote” in the names of all of his horses, which is fine as far
as it goes. Then, he put “coyote” in his
OWN name—as in Jason Coyote—which is carrying things a bit far, if you ask
me. But he didn’t and so now he is Jason
Coyote, which, I guess, is an interesting name, although a possible deterrent
to getting promising blind dates.
“Well, Sylvia, I’ve know a great guy—be just the ticket for
you.”
“Oh, really? What’s
his name?”
“Well—that would be ‘Jason Coyote’.”
“I just remembered I have to lacquer my furniture that day.”
You have to do a better job of planning ahead.
Anyway, as far as we know, with Jason as his role model, Zip
is not getting anybody pregnant. If we
had to do it again, we’d send him to the Octomom’s partner.
A Word About Those
Supplements….
First of all, you can toss those milk peptides. After several days of experimentation, I’m
making no progress with sleep improvement.
As for the phosphatidylserine,
however, there seems to be some hope. I
seem to be significantly less forgetful after using the stuff for a week now,
although I could be accused of a momentary lapse. The other day, I walked out of the post
office and into someone else’s car. In
my defense, I have to point out it was exactly
the same color and make as mine (Cadillac CTS) and it was parked in my usual spot. Also, I was busily engaged in sorting my
important mail. Alright, I was actually
looking for checks.
Fortunately for me, people in Fairfield have a good sense of
humor. As I exited the car, the true
owner smiled and asked me “Do you wanna swap?”
“Sure,” I told him. Yours is a couple years newer.”
I don’t consider this an example of forgetfulness, however. More like an example of dumb.
That’s all, folks….
