Thou wilt not cower in the dust,
Sizing Up The Preakness
Every year, when the Kentucky Derby is over, racing fans are certain what will happen in the Preakness. Usually, they are wrong. This year, however, might be a different story. The tremendous stretch run of I’ll Have Another to wrest what looked like a near-certain win for Bodemeister left those two three-year-olds head and shoulders in front of the remainder of the Preakness pack. When the fast-closing Dullahan, third in Kentucky, was not entered in the Preakness, the top two were elevated even more. Does anyone else have a chance? Let’s take a look.
First of all, Trinniberg, who made Bodemeister run a little faster than he wanted to in the Derby, is not entered this time. This would seem to give Bodemeister a huge advantage in controlling the pace. It is always possible, of course, that some nitwit with no chance—not unlike Trinniberg—will attempt to send his horse to the front, looking for that 15 seconds of fame. The logical thing to do, of course, would be to reserve Bodemeister in second and let the pace-setter run himself out, which would certainly happen. Trouble is, Bodemeister is not especially keen on running behind horses. And even if he finds himself unchallenged on the lead, he tends to start races awfully fast. The Preakness, at 1 3/16 miles, is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, which Bodemeister would have won despite all the early fractions if I’ll Have Another was not in the race. Even with his speedy front-running tendencies, however, it is very hard to see Bodemeister not winning this race. He is extremely talented and might even be a special horse. That being said, it is necessary to look deeper.
I’ll Have Another is a terrific race horse. Even though the Preakness is a little shorter than the Derby and he was all out to catch Bodemeister there, I’ll Have Another’s connections are now aware they cannot give Bodemeister the kind of advantage he had at the eighth pole in Kentucky. They can opt to stay closer or, if their horse is not comfortable with that, start to close earlier in the race. With only eleven horses in the Preakness, there will not be the mare’s nest of horses to circumnavigate one finds in the Derby (though I’ll Have Another was always remarkably clear in that race owing to his outside post and a smart ride). The expectation of almost everyone is that these two horses will hook up in the stretch and battle it out between themselves. But could something else happen? Sure.
We would like to have seen the ill-fated Union Rags in this race. He was finished in the Derby after breaking last but still finished a creditable sixth. In his previous race, the Florida Derby, he was surrounded by competitors most of the way before closing well to finish third. Unfortunately for bettors, Union Rags will be reserved for the Belmont. Well-rested, he should present a significant challenge to horses which have competed in the previous two grueling races. And that is another aspect to consider.
Probably none of these horses has come back from a race to run two weeks later….and certainly none of them has done it lately. Once a horse has marked himself as of stakes quality, he is not subjected to the frequent running lesser horses might endure. Few horses of this caliber will run less than four weeks apart. So, in addition to the myriad other factors involved in handicapping a race, you’ve got the Big Unknown—how will these horses handle coming back so quickly? Safe to say, it will not bother some and it will bother others a lot—but no one knows which is which. Moreover, coming out of this race, how many of the Derby/Preakness horses will be at full strength three weeks later for the Belmont? There are many reasons nobody has won the Triple Crown in 33 years and the close spacing of these three races certainly enters into it.
The Alternate
Possibilities
Many people like to look for a new horse, a Derby
nonstarter, to challenge in the Preakness.
After all, it’s possible that a late-bloomer with insufficient earnings
to qualify for the Derby might be peaking right at Preakness time. Such a horse would have the advantage of
being well-rested and ready to go. Other
trainers might simply want to skip the difficulties of competing in a 20-horse
field and wait for the much less crowded race in Baltimore. And some trainers, to which Maryland is home
base, may just take a shot because they’re
already in the neighborhood. All that
being said, horses which do not run in the Derby do not win the Preakness all
that often. In the last 15 Preaknesses,
from 1997 to 2011, only three horses—just 20%--were won by Derby
non-starters. Those winners were Rachel
Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006 and Red Bullet in 2000. This is despite the fact that more than half
of the Preakness starters in the last 15 years did not run in the Derby.
Before considering the Derby nonstarters, let’s look at some horses who performed reasonably well in that race—starting with the abysmally-named Went The Day Well. We told you in the column preceding the Derby that he was not ready to win that race but was improving by leaps and bounds. In the Derby, Went The Day Well closed almost eight lengths in the last eighth of a mile to finish fourth. He breaks from Post 5 in the Preakness. Top rider John Velazquez continues to ride.
Creative Cause, fifth in the Derby and a horse with a lot of talent, returns from his home base in California to try again. Joel Rosario rides. Like Went The Day Well, Creative Cause starts out at 6-1. Daddy Nose Best, 10th in the Derby, is probably a cut below the aforementioned two but is better than his Derby finish would suggest. He should do better in the 11-horse field of the Preakness.
We Don’t Think So
For some unknown reason, D. Wayne Lukas is back again with Optimizer, 11th in the Derby
and certain, at least, to be no worse here.
Dale Romans, a smart guy who should know better, has Cozzetti (whoever he is) in the race at 30-1 and growing. Michael Matz is bringing Teeth Of The Tiger, a lightly-raced horse on the improve. He was third in the Wood and, on his best
day, could be third here. We’d be
surprised.
Dick Dutrow hates to stay out of the limelight too long so he’s in here with Zetterholm, who has won three in a row, including a restricted stakes at Aqueduct. You might call this a big move up. Like from the Bowery to Central Park East. And then we have Guyana Star Dweej, who should be excluded just on a horrible name basis. But then again, you might expect that from a trainer named Doodnauth Shivmangal. What’s a Dweej? What’s a Doodnauth? Moreover, what’s the point here?
Although nobody ever wins the Triple Crown anymore, I’ll Have Another has a big shot to get the first two installments here with less competition, numberswise, than usual. But if he wins, he’ll deserve it. Bodemeister looks like the real deal.
Thank You For All
Those Cards And Letters….
….you folks in television land. Or, at least, all the emails on the occasion
of our 100th blog. Last week’s
column was the most read ever and by quite a large margin. For those of you who don’t get their weekly
notification of publication and therefore could not access the photos, just use
this link: https://picasaweb.google.com/117096508266479339918/100Blog#5740646147851042274
--they’re still there. Just for fun, we’re
listing below the most-read columns—not in a given week but over time. People who have not been here for the past
two years often ask which columns they should go back and read. We usually answer (a) all of them, of course,
and (b) those dealing with the Austin Days, the travels in Mexico, the early
days of the Subterranean Circus. But these are the ones they pick out
themselves:
The Big Non-Sleep
I used to sleep great. No trouble getting to sleep, no trouble staying asleep. If anything, I was still half-asleep in the morning when it was time to get up. Then, a few years ago, we went to Alaska. We went in July. It’s always light in Alaska in July. I thought we’d have trouble sleeping, but nope, just close the curtains, go to sleep. It’s a little lighter in the bedroom than usual, but not bad. Then we came home and I couldn’t get to sleep at all. I guess it was the Curse of Talkeetna or something. Anyway, not wanting to be an Ambien freak or worse, I started taking Melatonin, just one lousy gram per night with a Valerian cap thrown in for “smoothing” purposes. Worked terrific. Went to sleep, stayed asleep. No aftereffects next morning. Another knotty problem solved. Not so fast, my friend.
A couple months ago, it got a little harder to go to sleep. No problem, toss in another Melatonin. And that worked for awhile. Then, I started waking up in the middle of the night—two o’clock, four o’clock, five o’clock, etc. I turned the thermostat down so it would be cooler. We got a new, lighter comforter. I didn’t eat or drink well before bedtime. Nothing worked. It’s a dilemma, I’m telling you. Since all this began, I’ve discovered a ton of my friends have the same problem. Great. Another wonderful benefit of aging. When will they end? Leslie Logan wrote to say she eats Greek yogurt before bed and sleeps like a log, and, as I recall, that Zorba always had a lot of pep in the morning so he must have been suitably well-rested. I’m going to try it. But if it doesn’t work I’m still in the same boat. So if anyone out there has had monumental success with wonderful remedies not including sleeping pills, let me know. One of these days, I’m going to fall asleep right in the middle of one of these….zzzzzzz
Siobhan says “That’s all, folks….” And keep it down, will you?
Maryland, My Maryland!
Thy beaming sword will never rust,
Maryland, my Maryland!
Remember Carroll’s sacred trust,
Remember Howard’s warlike thrust,
And all they slumberers with the just,
Maryland, my Maryland!
Thy beaming sword will never rust,
Maryland, my Maryland!
Remember Carroll’s sacred trust,
Remember Howard’s warlike thrust,
And all they slumberers with the just,
Maryland, my Maryland!
Sizing Up The Preakness
Every year, when the Kentucky Derby is over, racing fans are certain what will happen in the Preakness. Usually, they are wrong. This year, however, might be a different story. The tremendous stretch run of I’ll Have Another to wrest what looked like a near-certain win for Bodemeister left those two three-year-olds head and shoulders in front of the remainder of the Preakness pack. When the fast-closing Dullahan, third in Kentucky, was not entered in the Preakness, the top two were elevated even more. Does anyone else have a chance? Let’s take a look.
First of all, Trinniberg, who made Bodemeister run a little faster than he wanted to in the Derby, is not entered this time. This would seem to give Bodemeister a huge advantage in controlling the pace. It is always possible, of course, that some nitwit with no chance—not unlike Trinniberg—will attempt to send his horse to the front, looking for that 15 seconds of fame. The logical thing to do, of course, would be to reserve Bodemeister in second and let the pace-setter run himself out, which would certainly happen. Trouble is, Bodemeister is not especially keen on running behind horses. And even if he finds himself unchallenged on the lead, he tends to start races awfully fast. The Preakness, at 1 3/16 miles, is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, which Bodemeister would have won despite all the early fractions if I’ll Have Another was not in the race. Even with his speedy front-running tendencies, however, it is very hard to see Bodemeister not winning this race. He is extremely talented and might even be a special horse. That being said, it is necessary to look deeper.
I’ll Have Another is a terrific race horse. Even though the Preakness is a little shorter than the Derby and he was all out to catch Bodemeister there, I’ll Have Another’s connections are now aware they cannot give Bodemeister the kind of advantage he had at the eighth pole in Kentucky. They can opt to stay closer or, if their horse is not comfortable with that, start to close earlier in the race. With only eleven horses in the Preakness, there will not be the mare’s nest of horses to circumnavigate one finds in the Derby (though I’ll Have Another was always remarkably clear in that race owing to his outside post and a smart ride). The expectation of almost everyone is that these two horses will hook up in the stretch and battle it out between themselves. But could something else happen? Sure.
We would like to have seen the ill-fated Union Rags in this race. He was finished in the Derby after breaking last but still finished a creditable sixth. In his previous race, the Florida Derby, he was surrounded by competitors most of the way before closing well to finish third. Unfortunately for bettors, Union Rags will be reserved for the Belmont. Well-rested, he should present a significant challenge to horses which have competed in the previous two grueling races. And that is another aspect to consider.
Probably none of these horses has come back from a race to run two weeks later….and certainly none of them has done it lately. Once a horse has marked himself as of stakes quality, he is not subjected to the frequent running lesser horses might endure. Few horses of this caliber will run less than four weeks apart. So, in addition to the myriad other factors involved in handicapping a race, you’ve got the Big Unknown—how will these horses handle coming back so quickly? Safe to say, it will not bother some and it will bother others a lot—but no one knows which is which. Moreover, coming out of this race, how many of the Derby/Preakness horses will be at full strength three weeks later for the Belmont? There are many reasons nobody has won the Triple Crown in 33 years and the close spacing of these three races certainly enters into it.
Before considering the Derby nonstarters, let’s look at some horses who performed reasonably well in that race—starting with the abysmally-named Went The Day Well. We told you in the column preceding the Derby that he was not ready to win that race but was improving by leaps and bounds. In the Derby, Went The Day Well closed almost eight lengths in the last eighth of a mile to finish fourth. He breaks from Post 5 in the Preakness. Top rider John Velazquez continues to ride.
Creative Cause, fifth in the Derby and a horse with a lot of talent, returns from his home base in California to try again. Joel Rosario rides. Like Went The Day Well, Creative Cause starts out at 6-1. Daddy Nose Best, 10th in the Derby, is probably a cut below the aforementioned two but is better than his Derby finish would suggest. He should do better in the 11-horse field of the Preakness.
Dick Dutrow hates to stay out of the limelight too long so he’s in here with Zetterholm, who has won three in a row, including a restricted stakes at Aqueduct. You might call this a big move up. Like from the Bowery to Central Park East. And then we have Guyana Star Dweej, who should be excluded just on a horrible name basis. But then again, you might expect that from a trainer named Doodnauth Shivmangal. What’s a Dweej? What’s a Doodnauth? Moreover, what’s the point here?
Although nobody ever wins the Triple Crown anymore, I’ll Have Another has a big shot to get the first two installments here with less competition, numberswise, than usual. But if he wins, he’ll deserve it. Bodemeister looks like the real deal.
1. July 15, 2010 The founding and early days of the
Subterranean Circus
2. November 18, 2010 Womanizing
3. April 7, 2011 Variety Pack, including the onset of Stuart
Bentler’s woes
4. September 2, 2010 Lieuen Adkins Primer. Adventures of Janis Joplin
5. January 26, 2012 Sea Cruise Special, starring Alice (the
Republican)
And let’s have a big hand for Number
5, written, after all, a mere 4 months ago.I used to sleep great. No trouble getting to sleep, no trouble staying asleep. If anything, I was still half-asleep in the morning when it was time to get up. Then, a few years ago, we went to Alaska. We went in July. It’s always light in Alaska in July. I thought we’d have trouble sleeping, but nope, just close the curtains, go to sleep. It’s a little lighter in the bedroom than usual, but not bad. Then we came home and I couldn’t get to sleep at all. I guess it was the Curse of Talkeetna or something. Anyway, not wanting to be an Ambien freak or worse, I started taking Melatonin, just one lousy gram per night with a Valerian cap thrown in for “smoothing” purposes. Worked terrific. Went to sleep, stayed asleep. No aftereffects next morning. Another knotty problem solved. Not so fast, my friend.
A couple months ago, it got a little harder to go to sleep. No problem, toss in another Melatonin. And that worked for awhile. Then, I started waking up in the middle of the night—two o’clock, four o’clock, five o’clock, etc. I turned the thermostat down so it would be cooler. We got a new, lighter comforter. I didn’t eat or drink well before bedtime. Nothing worked. It’s a dilemma, I’m telling you. Since all this began, I’ve discovered a ton of my friends have the same problem. Great. Another wonderful benefit of aging. When will they end? Leslie Logan wrote to say she eats Greek yogurt before bed and sleeps like a log, and, as I recall, that Zorba always had a lot of pep in the morning so he must have been suitably well-rested. I’m going to try it. But if it doesn’t work I’m still in the same boat. So if anyone out there has had monumental success with wonderful remedies not including sleeping pills, let me know. One of these days, I’m going to fall asleep right in the middle of one of these….zzzzzzz
Siobhan says “That’s all, folks….” And keep it down, will you?
