“But it might be the bottom of the ninth.”---Bill Killeen
If there is a readily discernible character who has appeared in more cartoons than any other, it must be the bearded guy carrying a sign which reads “THE WORLD ENDS TOMORROW!” From time immemorial, some version of this character, occasionally in human form, has penetrated our existence, often advising repentance, always getting a laugh and a dollop of sympathy for his misguided ways. Yet, he perseveres, shouldering his warning each morning, unfazed by the daily failure of his prediction, knowing that sooner or later he will be right.
The latest sign-carrier is one Guy McPherson, not some deranged goober but a professor emeritus of natural resources at the University of Arizona. Professor Mac thinks the lot of us could be extinguished by 2026, the victims of sharply rising methane emissions, so if you’ve been wanting to take that long-delayed trip to Paris….
In his tome, Going Dark, McPherson cites feedback loops caused by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels causing the climate system to rapidly transition to a different mode, occurring on a scale that human or natural systems cannot adapt to. In the first two decades after methane is released into the atmosphere, it’s about 85 times more powerful as a heat-trapping gas than carbon dioxide. Large amounts of methane are stored in “clathrates,” which are chemical substances along the Arctic continental shelves storing methane molecules.
Meanwhile, back at the ice ranch, Arctic News editor Sam Carana writes that human extinction could occur within a decade. “Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean in turn increases the strength of further feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic,” he says. “Altogether, these feedbacks and further warming elements could trigger a huge abrupt rise in global temperature, meaning that extinction could be less than one decade away.” At the root of it all is methane, which is being released from seabeds along continental shelves in the Arctic as a result of melting ice.
David Lindroff of the Counterpunch website explains how this could rapidly increase the average global temperature by three degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times, “enough to actually reverse the carbon cycle so that plants would end up releasing more carbon into the atmosphere rather than absorbing it.” Many scientists warn that increases of just two degrees Celsius will cause enormous havoc and four would be unfathomable.
Call them crazy at your own risk. Maybe what today’s manana society needs is a good shot upside the head to wake it from its acceptance of doddering leadership and morally bankrupt planet-defiling corporations. More than anywhere else, the U.S. is largely populated by ostriches, heads buried snugly in the sand, waiting for a good kick in the ass. McPherson, Carana and Lindroff are more than happy to provide it.
Not So Fast, My Friend….
Science being the he-said, she-said Olympics, not everyone agrees with the prophets of doom. Geoscience educator Scott Johnson maintains that McPherson has incorrectly interpreted data which doesn’t indicate an exponentially growing release of methane from the East Siberia arctic shelf.
“Actual measurements of methane in the atmosphere don’t show any sudden, accelerating spike,” he argues. “And most climate scientists don’t believe anything like this clathrate gun scenario is underway. Not only do climate scientists not think that such a thing is underway, most don’t think it’s likely to be a worry this century.”
McPherson accuses Johnson of being paid to produce evidence that backs the status quo. Johnson counters that McPherson has avoided answering his criticisms and invites all to examine his bank account. Inarguable, however, is the fact that the U.S. National Snow & Ice Data Center recently reported that the extent of Antarctic sea ice is at a record low and that the ice in Greenland is melting more quickly than previously forecast. It may be premature to expect the extinction of mankind by 2026-2030, but the handwriting is on the wall. What it says is “Don’t just stand there, DO something!”
Mighty Mouse Is On The Way!
Money may be the root of all evil, but sometimes it turns the tide in the other direction. The Fourth National Climate Assessment in November was depressing on the surface but might have been a blessing in disguise. The report also painted a picture of an enormous pending economic mess if we don’t slow down carbon use and global warning. And you know how politicians and Big Business feel about economic messes.
The report makes crystal clear that the financial costs of climate change will be drastically higher than the bill we’ll pay now for corrective measures. “We’re standing in front of the biggest disruption in energy we’ve ever had,” says electric-car pioneer Henrik Fisker, CEO of Fisker Inc. “What we thought was unsolvable and we had to live with IS solvable. I think we’re still timely enough to make the change.”
Fortunately, the incentives needed from government are relatively modest because the technology is ready to address the problem, both technically and economically. A solution is at hand. Most of the effort in the United States will involve consumers and the buying decisions they make in the coming decade. For starters, the next car you buy should be an electric one. Prices are going down and charging stations are going up. Where possible, consumers should opt for electricity that comes from wind, solar power and natural gas. Despite the foolish predilections of President Thump, the coal industry must be shuttered once and for all. A revolution in energy use can save the planet. About 70% of greenhouse gas emissions result from energy use.
Clean energy’s economics are beginning to work. In this country, we’ve tripled the portion of electricity generated by wind and solar power and we can triple it again with a few financial incentives. Cars which run on electricity are now available in almost every market segment with hundreds more model choices on the way, driven by the EV market’s expansion from the toy Prius and fancy Tesla into the SUVs and crossovers that most Americans prefer to drive. These vehicles are catching on not only because they are the Big New Thing that U.S. drivers esteem but also because the costs of clean power and next-generation cars are now at parity with traditional carbon-based alternatives.
The report adds lots of details, forecasting hundreds of billions of dollars in damage every year if carbon emissions do not fall in a hurry. Coastal flooding will distort what the report calls a multi-trillion dollar market for waterfront real estate. The tab includes the time spent recovering from increasingly frequent and more powerful hurricanes, from agriculture costs which soar as regions become too hot to grow traditional crops effectively, not to mention the increasing costs to air-condition facilities.
Economics, as always, will eventually trump small-minded politicians and greedy business moguls. Maybe even fast enough to save the world.
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Chernobyl--the new Tree City |
The Green New Deal, the only major policy proposal that scientists find adequate to address the crisis of climate change, is gaining momentum in Congress by the day. Equally important, the fight against carbon emissions got a recent shot in the arm from a couple of enormous companies.
Xcel Energy, which serves 3.6 million customers across eight states, and Maersk, the largest ship and supply vessel operator in the world, have both pledged to reduce their carbon output to zero over the next few decades. Previously, Google announced that it would strive to run all its operations on 100% clean energy, 24/7. There are now hundreds of companies like Ikea, Apple, BMW, Coca-Cola and Facebook committed to reaching 100 percent clean energy in the near future. More than 90 cities, including Minneapolis, Denver, St. Louis, Atlanta and Salt Lake have done the same, along with the states of California and Hawaii.
2018 saw the largest increase in global renewable generation capacity ever, with new solar photovoltaic capacity outstripping additions in coal, natural gas and nuclear power combined. The United Kingdom set new records for wind generation. And now that subsidy-free solar generation has proved possible, there are plans for the UK’s largest solar farm to provide the cheapest electricity on the grid, thanks to battery backup. Tesla, meanwhile, installed the world’s largest lithium battery in Australia and is set to pay back a third of its cost within a year.
The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone surrounding the damaged nuclear power plant in Russia, is now home to an amazing diversity of wildlife, its forests expanding in all directions. The ongoing spread of forests means more atmospheric carbon is becoming incorporated into the trees. Additionally, the central sector of the CEZ is now home to a major new solar farm development and wind farm construction is being considered.
Surprisingly, Ukraine showed the greatest reduction in energy emissions of all countries in 2017 with a 10% reduction from the previous year. This was primarily due to a dramatic fall in coal use, part of the country’s grand vision of a low-emission development strategy for the next 32 years. Other nations which managed to actually reduce energy emissions include South Africa, Argentina, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates.
With most national governments typically dragging their feet, it has been left to cities and states to regulate their own ecological advances. As usual, California leads the charge towards sanity in the United States with ongoing positive climate legislation. In Scotland, the Smart Fintry project based in Stirlingshire is an excellent example of a community approach to decentralized energy provision. The project balances local renewable electricity generation with community energy needs via dynamic energy management technology and an innovative tariff, offering far greater flexibility to the network and cheaper energy for the households.
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Extinct Rebellion members bury the dead. |
The closer the world gets to calamity and the less national governments do about it, the more likely we will see a sharp rise in popular resistance, including organizations prone to extreme tactics, including violence. Short-term groups have popped up in the past under far less dire conditions. Other direct action movements will make a point of bringing the impending disasters to the public attention in no uncertain terms. The Extinct Rebellion in England enjoys using banners to mirror its thoughts, like the one hung over the Westminster Bridge in November reading, “CLIMATE CHANGE: WE’RE F*CKED!” The group’s founder, Gail Broadbrook, explains “Grief is welcome here. It is an emotional, physical and spiritual necessity. Grief mobilizes awareness and action. Pain usefully alerts us to problems that need our attention. Now is not the time to turn our backs on such emotions.”
Next month, the 2019 Environmental Film Festival in Washington, D.C., presents over 100 films to audiences in museums, embassies, libraries, universities and local theaters throughout the city, a unique opportunity for eco-filmmakers to reach national and international lawmakers and decision-makers. Past films have been stunning and impactful, the sponsoring group receiving the 2017 Mayor’s Arts Award for excellence in Creative Industries.
350.org was founded with the goal of uniting climate activists into a movement, with a strategy of bottom-up organizing around the world. Activists in 189 countries have organized 350.org’s local climate-focused campaigns, project and actions. In India, for example, organizers have mobilized people to speak out on the country’s dependence on coal for growth. In the U.S., the group has effectively campaigned to divest public institutions such as municipalities and universities from the fossil fuel industry and to stop the Keystone XL pipeline.
Greenpeace, God bless their little souls, is still at it despite harassment, arrests and the threat of armed intervention by unhappy foes. The Russians famously detained them at a drilling rig in the Arctic and threatened them with piracy charges before backing off and demoting them to mere “hooligans.” Greenpeace International Executive director Kumi Naidoo boarded a drilling rig off the coast of Greenland with two associates and the trio was blasted for hours by fire hoses as the crew attempted to force them back into the choppy sea.
Idle No More, a group of Canadian Native North Americans, originally rose up to fight a parliament rollback of environmental protections and indigenous peoples’ sovereignty in order to make the country’s tar sands and the crude oil that could be extracted from them more easily exploitable. The organization promoted rallies in major cities across Canada, engaged in a six-week hunger strike and blockaded rail lines and highways. The Huffington Post wrote, “Idle No More is every bit as important as the Occupy movement that transfixed the world. Many of its organizers are among the most committed and skilled activists we’ve come across. If Occupy’s weakness was that it lacked roots, this movement’s greatest strength is that its roots go back farther than history.”
They’ve got the fever! They’re hot! They can’t be stopped! As T. S. Eliot might have put it, zero net carbon will arrive not with a bang but as a virus-like infection, spreading through contact. It might be the last of the ninth, but impossibly lost games have been won with one last swing of the bat. Has anyone here seen Ted Williams lately?
That’s all, folks….
bill.killeen094@gmail.com
